Economic Viewpoint
Figures, observations and interpretations of economic news.
- In This Time of Uncertainty, Careful Not to Confuse Economic Slowdown with Recession (PDF, 1.86 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- January 30, 2019
- A Look Back at 2018: Strong Economic Growth despite Increased Volatility (PDF, 1.86 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 20, 2018 - Business Debt
Is It Really Better to Reduce It? (PDF, 1.94 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 17, 2018 - Quebec from 1960 to Today: In Search of Prosperity (Part 1)
We've Come a Long Way, with More Solid Foundations (PDF, 1.96 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 3rd, 2018 - Upward Pressure on Business Costs in Quebec (PDF, 1.86 MB) - This link will
open in a new window.
- November 29, 2018 - Volatility May Remain High, but the Stock Markets Could Bounce Back (PDF, 1.86 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- November 29, 2018 - A Natural Gas Market in Transition (PDF, 1.86 MB) - This link will open in
a new window.
- November 27, 2018 - Canada's Population Growth Exceeds Expectations (PDF, 1.81 MB) - This link
will open in a new window.
- November 26, 2018 - Global Economy in the Decades to Come
India and China Could Be the Two Biggest Economic Powers by the Next 20 Years (PDF, 1.85 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- November 1st, 2018 - China and U.S. Protectionism
Should We Expect a Sharp Slowdown in China's Economy? (PDF, 1.87 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 31st, 2018 - United States: Midterm Elections and U.S. Economy
Will the November 6 Congressional Elections Influence the Economy? (PDF, 1.86 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 24, 2018 - Quebec's Net Migration With Other Provinces Is Improving (PDF, 1.83 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 11, 2018 - Is the Threat of Inflation Already Scaring the United States?
Part 2: Inflation Expectations in the United States – Households and Forecasters (PDF, 1.83 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 3rd, 2018 - Is the Threat of Inflation Already Scaring the United States?
Part 1: Inflation Expectations in the United States – Businesses and Markets (PDF, 1.84 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 1st, 2018 - Rate Hikes Are Starting to Have a Slight Impact on Canadian Households (PDF, 1.80 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 27, 2018 - Is GDP the Only Way to Measure Economic Performance? (PDF, 2.00 MB) - This
link will open in a new window.
- September 27, 2018 - The Sharp Increase in Wages May Contribute to Greater Inflation in Canada (PDF, 1.83 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- August 8, 2018 - Bond Yields Should Continue Their Uptrend (PDF, 1.87 MB) - This link will
open in a new window.
- July 31st, 2018 - Despite the Downsides of a Number of Cryptocurrencies, the Underlying Technology Continues to Show Its Potential
(PDF, 1.86 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- July 19, 2018 - Industrial Real Estate Is Booming in Montreal and Quebec CMA's (PDF, 1.81 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- July 18, 2018 - The Rise in Protectionism and the Prospect of a Global Trade War (PDF, 1.92 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- July 10, 2018 - Is Higher Volatility in Emerging Country Currencies Something to Worry About? (PDF, 1.85 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- July 4, 2018 - India: On the Cusp of Rapid Growth and Several Challenges
A Trading Partner That Could Turn into a Major World Player (PDF, 1.84 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- June 28, 2018 - The European Debt: No Cause for Alarm Yet
But an Economic Shock Could Lead to Volatility (PDF, 1.86 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- June 19, 2018 - Quebec's Trade with the European Union
For exports, geographic diversification should intensify (PDF, 1.82 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- May 30, 2018 - No True Price Drops for Existing Homes in Canada (PDF, 1.73 MB) - This
link will open in a new window.
- April 27, 2018 - The U.S. Budget Situation: Much Worse despite Economic Growth
Decisions by the Trump Administration and Congress Come with a Big Price Tag (PDF, 1.82 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- April 25, 2018 - Will the Drop in the Unemployment Rate Drive Inflation Up in Canada? (PDF, 1.76 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- April 17, 2018 - Mexico's Economy: Calm Within the Storm
The Future Remains Highly Uncertain (PDF, 1.82 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- April 12, 2018 - Questioning Inflation Targets
Japan's Recent Experience Provides New Insight (PDF, 1890 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 20, 2018 - The New Trans-Pacific Partnership: Smaller, but Just as Ambitious (PDF, 1885 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 16, 2018 - A 10-Year Yield Slightly Over 3% Would Not Be Disastrous for the U.S. Stock Market (PDF, 1.82 MB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 1st, 2018 - Wage Growth in Quebec is Taking Off (PDF, 1.84 MB) - This link will open in
a new window.
- January 24, 2018
- A Look Back at 2017: The True Beginning of the Post-Financial Crisis Era
A Few Economic and Financial Highlights (PDF, 1878 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 20, 2017 - Snapshot of External Debt in Emerging and Developing Countries (PDF, 1935 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 5, 2017 - A Look at Household Assets in Quebec: Their Room for Manoeuvre is There Sufficient? (PDF, 1879 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- November 29, 2017 - Are the Provinces Catching Up? (PDF, 1852 KB) - This link will open in a
new window.
- November 16, 2017 - The Causes and Consequences of Low Wage Growth in Canada (PDF, 2008 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 27, 2017 - Where Do We Stand With Major Macroeconomic Imbalances? (PDF, 1878 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 26, 2017 - Lack of Clear Indication on Future Key Interest Rate Changes Is Hurting Bank of Canada Communications
(PDF, 1902 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 23rd, 2017 - Who Will be the Next Chair of the Federal Reserve? (PDF, 1868 KB) - This
link will open in a new window.
- October 18, 2017 - Is the Period of Lacklustre U.S. Inflation Winding Down? (PDF, 1949 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 26, 2017 - Impact of Falling Residential Market Prices on Quebec's Household Financial Situation (PDF, 1900 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 18, 2017 - How High Will Bond Yields Go?
Part 1: Real Yields and the Neutral Rate (PDF, 1898 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 13, 2017 - Is Low Global Inflation Coming to an End? (PDF, 1907 KB) - This link will
open in a new window.
- September 11, 2017 - Several Indebted Households in Quebec Are Vulnerable to an Interest Rate Hike (PDF, 1908 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 5, 2017 - The Financial Position of Quebec Households (PDF, 1920 KB) - This link will
open in a new window.
- August 28, 2017 - Will Quebec's Weak Inflation Persist? (PDF, 1870 KB) - This link will open
in a new window.
- August 14, 2017 - Will Inflation Eventually Pick Up in Canada? (PDF, 1904 KB) - This link
will open in a new window.
- August 8, 2017 - Three Years of Negative Interest Rates in Europe
Are Hard Times in the Offing? (PDF, 1902 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- June 29, 2017 - 2017 Has Been a Good Year for Investors Thus Far (PDF, 1886 KB) - This
link will open in a new window.
- June 21st, 2017 - The Bottom Line on Canadian Wage Growth (PDF, 1889 KB) - This link will
open in a new window.
- June 1st, 2017 - Do Economic Cycles Have an Expiry Date?
When Will the Next Global Recession Arrive? (PDF, 429 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- May 16, 2017 - Canada: Many Detours Ahead for the Auto Industry (PDF, 394 KB) - This link
will open in a new window.
- May 11, 2017 - Canadian Mortgage Interest Rates Could Rise a Few Percentage Points in the Coming Years (PDF, 429 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- May 4, 2017 - Is the U.S. Auto Market at Risk? (PDF, 419 KB) - This link will open in a
new window.
- April 20, 2017 - Canada: Consumers Remain the Cornerstone of Growth (PDF, 383 KB) - This
link will open in a new window.
- April 10, 2017 - Will the British Economy's Stunning Resilience Last?
The Start Signal for Brexit Negotiations Is Given (PDF, 423 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 29, 2017 - Is the Reflation Trend Strong and Widespread?
An Issue for Future Monetary Policy Evolution and Movement by the Major Currencies (PDF, 435 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 21, 2017 - Is the Bank of Canada Running Out of Arguments? (PDF, 365 KB) - This link
will open in a new window.
- March 16, 2017 - What should bond market investors expect from the Federal government's Debt Management Strategy?
(PDF, 411 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 13, 2017 - Can the U.S. economy accelerate sustainably?
Donald Trump's pledge to get U.S. real GDP to 4% growth faces several constraints (PDF, 381 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 9, 2017 - Canadian goods exports to the United States
Problems in some sectors and regions muddy the picture (PDF, 473 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 3, 2017 - Canada: Business investment in 2017 poised to disappoint once again (PDF, 313 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- February 28, 2017 - Gas prices may have seen their trough, but 2017 should not be too painful (PDF, 393 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- February 22, 2017 - Protectionism: A brake on economic growth (PDF, 394 KB) - This link will
open in a new window.
- February 17, 2017 - Another surge for the bitcoin
Why? (PDF, 410 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- February 14, 2017 - Despite the increase in public investment, monetary policy can still be solicited in Canada
(PDF, 375 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- February 6, 2017 - Strong Canadian job creation: fact or fiction? (PDF, 401 KB) - This link
will open in a new window.
- February 1, 2017
- 2016: What to take away from a year full of surprises? (PDF, 402 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 21, 2016 - Will the next global crisis once again be tied to excessive debt? (PDF, 354 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 15, 2016 - Monetary policies after the crisis
Part 2: Limiting distortion (PDF, 419 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 8, 2016 - Is low business productivity really an issue?
Estimation problems may be muddying the picture (PDF, 275 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 5, 2016 - Monetary policies after the crisis
Part 1: Refocusing on the medium term (PDF, 410 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- November 7, 2016 - The November 8 elections and the U.S. economy
Part 3: Economic and financial consequences (PDF, 512 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- November 4, 2016 - Economic growth: in search of a new momentum
First component: determining the causes of the current quasi-stagnation
Second component: identify new levers of growth, here and elsewhere, in order to act more sustainably (PDF, 614 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- November 3, 2016 - The November 8 election and the U.S. economy
Part 2: Economic issues and the candidates' proposals (PDF, 520 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- November 2, 2016 - Bank of Canada's mandate renewed
Why the option to raise the inflation target was not retained (PDF, 397 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 26, 2016 - The November 8 election and the U.S. economy
Part 1: The Obama administration's record on the economy (PDF, 633 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 20, 2016 - Are bond markets about to pay the price for their complacency? (PDF, 704 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 12, 2016 - The helicopter money
How does it work and how much would it take? (PDF, 636 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 6, 2016 - Some optimism still seems appropriate regarding North America's stock markets (PDF, 346 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 26, 2016 - South America: Soon to see some light at the end of the tunnel?
Opportunities for bold investors (PDF, 413 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 8, 2016 - The financial situation of Quebec households
The picture differs widely with borrower age (PDF, 419 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- August 25, 2016 - The many barriers to interprovincial trade could lessen with the new Canadian Free Trade Agreement
(PDF, 334 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- August 23, 2016 - Brexit: Is the trade agreement between Canada and the European Union under threat?
There could be a new agreement between Canada and the United Kingdom (PDF, 309 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- July 28, 2016 - Monetary policies post-Brexit (PDF, 388 KB) - This link will open in a new
window.
- July 8, 2016 - Brexit: The economic, political and financial fallout
One more uncertainty in an already shaky global situation (PDF, 447 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- June 27, 2016 - What means are available to slow the housing market in some parts of Canada?
Solutions exist elsewhere in the world (PDF, 384 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- June 22, 2016 - Simulation results: How vulnerable are Quebecers to an interest rate increase? (PDF, 747 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- June 2, 2016 - When weak economic growth rhymes with high inflation
Some exceptions to consider (PDF, 380 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- May 26, 2016 - Business transition: the issue at home and elsewhere
Quebec's prosperity also relies on a strong, high-quality next generation (PDF, 442 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- May 16, 2016 - Should we be worried about major Canadian government budget deficits? (PDF, 346 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- May 12, 2016 - Update: Quebec households' financial situation
Debt and asset value have both increased over the last 15 years (PDF, 443 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- May 9, 2016 - Mexican economy: Its stability contrasts with the rest of Latin America
A NAFTA partner that could become more important (PDF, 363 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- May 5, 2016 - Is cash going the way of the dodo? (PDF, 396 KB) - This link will open in
a new window.
- May 2, 2016 - Servicing Canada's economic transition (PDF, 356 KB) - This link will open
in a new window.
- April 15, 2016 - Water: abundant, and scarce
Water quality and availability present both challenges and economic opportunities (PDF, 428 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- April 14, 2016 - Could inflation accelerate sharply due to the weak Canadian dollar? (PDF, 464 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 7, 2016 - A primer on parliamentary budget offices
Public agencies established around the world to provide independent and impartial budget analysis (PDF, 402 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 3, 2016 - The negative rates experiment doesn't look successful
Central banks would be better served by other policy tools (PDF, 332 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 1, 2016 - Choppy waters in the global economy are holding Quebecs exports in check (PDF, 432 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- February 24, 2016 - Would an entry in bear market territory be justified for the U.S. equity market? (PDF, 385 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- February 23, 2016 - The federal government has some leeway in terms of budget deficits (PDF, 405 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- January 21, 2016 - The growing weight of China and the emerging economies (PDF, 385 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- January 19, 2016 - Investment by Quebec businesses: An overview of determinants and outlooks (PDF, 495 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- January 13, 2016 - Medium-term issues and forecasts (PDF, 395 KB) - This link will open in a
new window.
- January 12, 2016
- U.S. monetary policy: back to normal... in experimental mode (PDF, 322 KB) - This
link will open in a new window.
- December 15, 2015 - Quebecs condo market is still in surplus
New construction and prices will keep adjusting (PDF, 583 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 10, 2015 - The energy sector continues to struggle
Should monetary and fiscal policy be even more stimulating in Canada? (PDF, 456 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 7, 2015 - Good news: growth in the number of businesses is accelerating in Canada (PDF, 285 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- November 25, 2015 - Asia: Issues for the medium term, challenges and opportunities (PDF, 419 KB) - This
link will open in a new window.
- November 12, 2015 - Will the slowdown in the housing market also affect Toronto and Vancouver? (PDF, 427 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- November 9, 2015 - The Chinese economy's uncertain future
A development model that has reached its limits (PDF, 423 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- November 2, 2015 - The first three quarters of 2015 have been difficult, but investors may come out all right in the end (PDF, 410
KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 29, 2015 - Business investment: Forging alliances abroad to create wealth here at home (PDF, 582 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- October 26, 2015 - Comparative study of magnitude
and length of economic cycles
Quebec not always in synch with Canada (PDF, 562 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 22, 2015 - The manufacturing sector in the 21st century: beyond the factory
A veritable revolution is under way (PDF, 667 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 16, 2015 - Ten years after the peak of the U.S. housing bubble
A 10-graph analysis (PDF, 429 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 15, 2015 - Where is Europe heading?
Medium-term issues (PDF, 467 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- September 2, 2015 - A recession in Canada?
What are the implications for markets? (PDF, 460 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- July 29, 2015 - Negative interest rates: Will Canada be spared? (PDF, 456 KB) - This link will open
in a new window.
- July 9, 2015 - Medium-term issues and forecasts
Central banks will remain cautious when raising their key rates (PDF, 389 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- June 25, 2015 - What should we make of the negative interest rates that we now see in many countries? (PDF, 439 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- May 27, 2015 - The central banks still have some ammo left
But doing more would likely involve breaking some taboos and require government collaboration (PDF, 414 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- May 21, 2015 - The internationalization of Quebec SMEs: exchange rate issues (PDF, 581 KB) - This
link will open in a new window.
- May 14, 2015 - Business investment in Quebec and Ontario: Improvement in sight? (PDF, 417 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- April 28, 2015 - Why has growth flagged in international trade?
A lot of hope rests on liberalizing trade (PDF, 466 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- April 27, 2015 - CanadaEuropean Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement
An overview of the agreement, trade and advantages (PDF, 539 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- April 22, 2015 - Financial position of households in Quebec and Ontario (PDF, 590 KB) - This link will
open in a new window.
- April 7, 2015 - Five factors that could persuade the Bank of Canada to cut rates (PDF, 446 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- March 25, 2015 - Is the oil price plunge damaging the U.S. economy? (PDF, 411 KB) - This link will
open in a new window.
- February 27, 2015 - Where will oil prices go now?
Three major trends are possible in a complex environment (PDF, 493 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- February 16, 2015 - Medium-term issues and forecasts
Getting used to a more moderate pace of economic growth (PDF, 386 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- January 14, 2015
- Can we expect wages to accelerate in the United States?
A key factor for the Federal Reserve in 2015 (PDF, 442 KB) - This link will open in a new window.
- December 17, 2014 - Quebec's more optimistic demographic outlook does not reverse the forecast downtrend for economic growth
Fortunately, other levers could partially make up for this
- December 16, 2014 (PDF, 471 KB) - Can the United States prevent the global economy from slowing down?
- December 10, 2014 (PDF, 424 KB) - The possible consequences of weaker economic growth potential in Canada
- December 9, 2014 (PDF, 400 KB) - Weaker currency and lower oil prices: the winning provinces
- November 26, 2014 (PDF, 431 KB) - Special study: Economic history of Quebec over the past six decades
- November 25, 2014 (PDF, 748 KB) - The internationalization of Quebec SMEs
A necessity for making Quebec more productive, more entrepreneurial and more prosperous
- October 16, 2014 (PDF, 527 KB) - Employment in Canada: The establishment survey has been much less volatile since 2012
- September 26, 2014 (PDF, 366 KB) - The rental market is doing fine in Quebec and Ontario
- August 27, 2014 (PDF, 476 KB) - The Canadian economy's growth potential enters a new era
- August 20, 2014 (PDF, 410 KB) - Medium-term issues and forecasts
Several factors will limit how far up interest rates can go
- June 27, 2014 (PDF, 385 KB) - The U.S. job market's long trek back
- June 12, 2014 (PDF, 413 KB) - Interest rate sensitivity and the real estate market
- May 26, 2014 (PDF, 449 KB) - Several factors behind Quebec's high gas prices
- May 7, 2014 (PDF, 451 KB) - Simulation results: If residential property prices were to decline, what impact would this have on the financial
position of Quebec's households?
- May 6, 2014 (PDF, 622 KB) - Risk of financial crisis in emerging countries
Despite the recent lull, concerns persist
- April 9, 2014 (PDF, 508 KB) - Will the bull market continue?
- April 2, 2014 (PDF, 421 KB) - Despite the recent increase in inflation, Canada is still dealing with disinflationary pressures
- March 3, 2014 (PDF, 484 KB) - Personal bankruptcies climb back up in Quebec: Is this the beginning of an upward trend?
- February 28, 2014 (PDF, 520 KB) - Where are the participation and unemployment rates heading in the United States?
- February 24, 2014 (PDF, 482 KB) - Medium-term issues and forecasts
The effects of demographic changes will be increasingly felt
- January 8, 2014 (PDF, 378 KB)
- The state of mind of U.S. consumers
- November 28, 2013 (PDF, 435 KB) - Will Canadian export growth meet expectations?
- November 25, 2013 (PDF, 407 KB) - The limits of currencies like Bitcoin
- November 21, 2013 (PDF, 412 KB) - The Quebec office building market: a slowdown has begun
- November 19, 2013 (PDF, 506 KB) - How will the Federal Reserve manage to reduce the blur?
- October 29, 2013 (PDF, 424 KB) - Quebec's non-residential real estate
market is solid
Investments set to continue rising
- October 17, 2013 (PDF, 603 KB) - Will Canada benefit from the housing recovery in the United
States?
- September 27, 2013 (PDF, 437 KB) - Long-term major asset class returns
After a lost decade, the stock market seems to offer better opportunities
- September 25, 2013- Summary (PDF, 313 KB)
- Complete document (PDF, 698 KB)
- Is the economy threatened by rising interest rates?
- September 20, 2013 (PDF, 461 KB) - Tying monetary policy to unemployment: Is the game worth
the candle?
- August 14, 2013 (PDF, 436 KB) - Do higher bond and mortgage rates
pose a threat to the recovery of the U.S. housing market?
- July 16, 2013 (PDF, 487 KB) - Trend for the Canadian dollar
Gains at first, followed by more difficult times
- July 10, 2013 (PDF, 114 KB) - Issues and forecasts for the medium
term
Increases in key interest rates are nearing
- June 20, 2013 (PDF, 62,8 KB) - U.S. energy revolution: We can't ignore the consequences
- June 11, 2013 (PDF, 128 KB) - The trade deficit weighs down Quebec's economy
- May 22, 2013 (PDF, 126 KB) - Is the cost of living rising faster than the official
inflation rate?
- April 2, 2013 (PDF, 157 KB) - Canada loses steam: How will the Bank of Canada react?
- March 5, 2013 (PDF, 125 KB) - Weak inflation could persist several more months
- February 19, 2013 (PDF, 128 KB) - Is Canada's labour market too robust?
- February 7, 2013 (PDF, 113 KB) - New features for the Desjardins Leading Index
- January 16, 2013 (PDF, 202 KB)
- Is the Federal Reserve playing with fire by buying more long-term securities?
Could higher interest rates cause it to lose money?
- December 11, 2012 (PDF, 209 KB) - Update on Quebec households' financial position
- December 3, 2012 (PDF, 176 KB) - The fiscal cliff
- November 22, 2012 (PDF, 135 KB) - Is Canadian employment data reliable?
- November 1, 2012 (PDF, 114 KB) - The November 6
election and the U.S. economy
Part 2: The economic issues and the candidates' proposals
- October 30, 2012 (PDF, 188 KB) - The November 6 election and
the U.S. economy
Part 1: A review of Barack Obama's first term
- October 18, 2012 (PDF, 240 KB) - Québec condo
market
Will strong construction lead to a surplus?
Are price poised to drop?
- July 10, 2012 (PDF, 209 KB) - After staying flat for several weeks, the loonie jumps to US$1.01
Is the Canadian dollar still as sensitive to oil prices and investor risk aversion?
- March 5, 2012 (PDF, 161 KB) - Is there a risk of a correction in Québec residential real estate prices?
- March 1, 2012 (PDF, 132 KB) - Canadian real estate market: Some regions could slow
or even contract
- January 26, 2012 (PDF, 205 KB)
- Québec businesses seem solid
- November 29, 2011 (PDF, 168 KB) - Time for Canada to renew its 5-year
inflation target
Should we expect any changes?
- November 7, 2011 (PDF, 156 KB) - Financial situation
in Québec households
Vulnerability depends heavily on borrowers' profiles
- October 27, 2011 (PDF, 159 KB) - The downgraded U.S. rating is fuelling market losses
- August 8, 2011 (PDF, 96.7 KB) - Economic
and trade agreement with the European Union: A chance to heighten the diversification of Canadian trade
- July 26, 2011 (PDF, 192 KB) - Global risks are a headache for
the Bank of Canada
How will it manage monetary policy?
- July 18, 2011 (PDF, 186 KB) - The debate on the ceiling of the U.S. debt and its
consequences
- July 11, 2011 (PDF, 123 KB) - Canadian dollar's
sensitivity to interest rates
Is more caution required in raising interest rates?
- July 5, 2011 (PDF, 208 KB) - Taking stock: Québec
households' financial position
Debt vs. household assets
- June 17, 2011 (PDF, 129 KB)
- How vulnerable are Québec households to
interest rate increases?
- November 2, 2010 (PDF, 200 KB) - Employment rate of workers aged
55 and older in Québec: Are improvements in store?
- September 13, 2010 (PDF, 134 KB) - Increase in cyclical
productivity in Québec
Business competitiveness still fails to improve
- July 15, 2010 (PDF, 126 KB) - The return to a policy of revaluing the yuan
is welcome, but is not a panacea
- June 30, 2010 (PDF, 152 KB) - Foreign purchase of Québec farmland
A takeover or a misunderstanding?
- May 11, 2010 (PDF, 181 KB) - Are the U.S. states impairing the recovery?
- May 4, 2010 (PDF, 161 KB) - The theme for the next 10 years: Rebalancing!
- April 21, 2010 (PDF, 155 KB) - The sheer size of Québec's debt is cause for
concern
- March 23, 2010 (PDF, 126 KB) - The sudden rally in Canada's
residential real estate market is surprising and troubling
- March 10, 2010 (PDF, 183 KB) - Is a real estate bubble on the horizon for Québec?
Unlike in other provinces, recent price increases are not a concern
- March 10, 2010 (PDF, 185 KB) - Canadian companies must improve their competitiveness
- February 15, 2010 (PDF, 134 KB) - Sovereign debts: do the risks extend around the globe?
- February 11, 2010 (PDF, 166 KB) - United States: a sovereign debt that is huge, but
manageable... for now
- February 9, 2010 (PDF, 172 KB) - Rumours continue about the diversification of
central banks' reserves
- February 8, 2010 (PDF, 128 KB) - Will Greece's difficulties trigger another financial
crisis?
- February 2, 2010 (PDF, 131 KB)
- Canada's mortgage market benefits from easing financial stains
Should we review our conclusions on available mortgage options?
- December 2, 2009 (PDF, 139 KB) - Exit strategies for central banks
How can monetary inflation be avoided?
- November 20, 2009 (PDF, 202 KB) - The key
to Québec's economic prosperity
Boost productivity to soften the impact of the demographic shock
- September 22, 2009 (PDF, 260 KB) - Change in
employment at the end of a recession and the beginning of a recovery: what the past can teach us
- September 3, 2009 (PDF, 172 KB) - The worst economic
crisis since 1929 is rekindling the age-old ideological debate among economists
- August 26, 2009 (PDF, 180 KB) - Demographic shock: An update
It remains a problem for the next fifteen years!
- July 22, 2009 (PDF, 105 KB) - Outlook for the stock markets: Can the bull trend
continue?
- June 19, 2009 (PDF, 240 KB) - Is the return to economic growth imminent?
- June 9, 2009 (PDF, 283 KB) - Impact of the demographic shock on Québec's economy
Slowdown in GDP growth will have far-reaching consequences
- May 28, 2009 (PDF, 224 KB) - Will U.S. consumers be part of the economic rebound?
The jump in savings could offset the government's efforts to kick-start the economy
- May 29, 2009 (PDF, 263 KB) - Canada's national balance sheet: Falling
assets leading to increased savings
- April 29, 2009 (PDF, 176 KB) - The Bank of Canada is one step away from adopting
a quantitative policy
- April 15, 2009 (PDF, 270 KB) - Already fragile, the public finances explode
under pressure from revenues
- March 4, 2009 (PDF, 113 KB) - The financial crisis has led to changes in the
Canadian mortgage market
- March 4, 2009 (PDF, 149 KB) - Consequences of a high public debt in the United States
- February 25, 2009 (PDF, 174 KB) - Deflationary forces intensify
- February 18, 2009 (PDF, 212 KB) - Last chance
budget!
To kick start the economy, governments will have to inject at least $20B over two years
- January 22, 2009 (PDF, 98.5 KB) - Is the Fed's rapidly expanding balance sheet an
inflation threat?
- January 15, 2009 (PDF, 183 KB)
- Québec could avoid a
steep economic decline
However, a mild recession seems likely
- December 10, 2008 (PDF, 157 KB) - The commodity price correction
is justified, but concerns about shortages could resurface
- November 27, 2008 (PDF, 188 KB) - Our future prosperity hinges on our universities
- November 19, 2008 (PDF, 110 KB) - Desjardins: a clear force for Québec
- November 12, 2008 (PDF, 114 KB) - Impacts of Barack Obama being elected President of
the United States
- November 5, 2008 (PDF, 168 KB) - The November 4th elections and the U.S. economy
- October 21, 2008 (PDF, 344 KB) - The impact of the financial crisis in Canada
- October 14, 2008 (PDF, 141 KB) - Subprime Mortgage Crisis: the
Paulson rescue plan is necessary, but hardly a cure-all
- October 9, 2008 (PDF, 171 KB) - Financial crisis: neither the first nor the last
- October 3, 2008 (PDF, 215 KB) - Far from
widespread, prices for residential housing
will continue to fall in some regions across the country
- September 25, 2008 (PDF, 143 KB) - From gross domestic product (GDP) to gross domestic income (GDI)
Canada's economy is in better shape than expected: possibility of new rate cuts reduced
- August 26, 2008 (PDF, 142 KB) - Québec economy: The adverse effects of demographic shock are looming
It is important to act now to soften the impact on the labour market
- August 13, 2008 (PDF, 118 KB) - Worldwide food crisis: Fears of a famine are overstated
- June 4, 2008 (PDF, 174 KB) - The Canadian auto industry's difficulties are far from
over
- June 3, 2008 (PDF, 191 KB) - Should the surge in oil
and food prices prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to target total inflation?
- May 27, 2008 (PDF, 168 KB) - Where are we with the U.S. recession?
- May 14, 2008 (PDF, 156 KB) - The price of gas: How much will Quebecers have to
tighten their belts?
- May 13, 2008 (PDF, 133 KB) - Is the European Central Bank's hawkish tone inflationary?
- May 12, 2008 (PDF, 144 KB) - Job growth in the context of economic slowdown:
Impacts on productivity
- May 1, 2008 (PDF, 120 KB) - Are current oil prices justified?
- April 30, 2008 (PDF, 252 KB) - The subprime mortgage credit crisis: should
the government intervene (again)?
- April 24, 2008 (PDF, 201 KB) - Québec's economy: private
investment lies at the heart of the productivity battle
- April 21, 2008 (PDF, 616 KB) - The strength of the labour market in Canada could still
surprise
- April 15, 2008 (PDF, 129 KB) - The Fed's policy of injecting
liquidities - is it really expansionist and inflationist?
- April 14, 2008 (PDF, 170 KB) - 100th anniversary of the Canadian penny
An opportunity to re-examine the usefulness of our coins and bank notes in circulation
- April 9, 2008 (PDF, 286 KB) - Credit problems are creating a major risk
- March 17, 2008 (PDF, 228 KB) - Stagflation fears are exaggerated
- March 14, 2008 (PDF, 154 KB) - United States: Are home prices set to bottom out?
- March 12, 2008 (PDF, 208 KB) - Québec Budget 2008: Above all, keep it in balance
- March 5, 2008 (PDF, 118 KB) - Québec' Economy: The Challenge of Foreign Markets
Geographic diversification needed quickly to reduce export dependency on the United States
- February 29, 2008 (PDF, 605 KB) - Oil prices over US$100 a barrel!
- February 21, 2008 (PDF, 114 KB) - Diminishing inflation in Canada
- February 21, 2008 (PDF, 193 KB) - Fiscal imbalance is still with us!
- February 19, 2008 (PDF, 104 KB) - Is the United States in a recession? What are the signs?
- February 14, 2008 (PDF, 229 KB) - European Central Bank will lower rates when the time
comes
- February 12, 2008 (PDF, 144 KB) - The probability of a recession is high, especially
in the United States
- January 15, 2008 (PDF, 115 KB) - Oil at US$100: worrisome but not
disastrous
10 reasons why there is no need to panic
- January 3, 2008 (PDF, 217 KB)
- Common currency with the United States: It's not worth the
risk
- November 29, 2007 (PDF, 147 KB) - The loonie continues to soar, reaching US$1.10 overnight
- November 7, 2007 (PDF, 147 KB) - Is the stock market coming into the last leg of a long
race?
- September 27, 2007 (PDF, 259 KB) - Canadian dollar: A weak greenback and
high oil prices mean parity is a sure thing
- September 20, 2007 (PDF, 143 KB) - Impacts of the U.S. mortgage crisis
- August 14, 2007 (PDF, 221 KB) - China's real GDP up by 11.9% in the second quarter
- July 19, 2007 (PDF, 97.1 KB) - Will the Canadian dollar keep surprising us?
- May 31, 2007 (PDF, 189 KB) - Comments on the 2007-2008 Québec Budget
First Jérôme-Forget budget: Almost everything on the promised tax cuts
- May 24, 2007 (PDF, 79.3 KB) - Special
Québec-Ontario Forecasts
The economic slowdown's trough will soon make way for recovery
- April 26, 2007 (PDF, 95 KB) - Analysis of Ontario's 2007 Budget
A Balanced and Relatively Modest Budget
- March 22, 2007 (PDF, 137 KB) - Analysis of the Canada's Budget 2007
- March 19, 2007 (PDF, 68.5 KB) - Analysis on the 2007 Québec Budget
- February 20, 2007 (PDF, 87.2 KB)- Should we stop using the penny?
- February 15, 2007 (PDF, 167 KB) - Press release - Should we say goodbye to the penny?
- February 15, 2007 (PDF, 27 KB) - Exploratory study: Canadians' behaviours with
respect to coin usage
- February 15, 2007 (PDF, 67 KB)
- Should we stop using the penny?
- Special
Québec - Ontario forecasts: Economic slowdown will peak in 2007 but dissipate thereafter
- February 9, 2007 (PDF, 86 KB) - The pessimism
toward the greenback is not justified: the currency will stay strong against the euro and yen
- January 24, 2007 (PDF, 193 KB)
- Does the sharp inversion of the U.S.
yield curve point to a recession... or not?
- December 11, 2006 (PDF, 231 KB) - Must the Bank of Canada avoid
reducing key rates due to rising prices for real estate?
- December 7, 2006 (PDF, 105 KB) - The Federal Economic and Fiscal Update
- November 23, 2006 (PDF, 54.4 KB) - Global slowdown ahead: should we
expect a drastic correction in raw material prices?
- November 17, 2006 (PDF, 216 KB) - Petrocurrency: good or bad for Canada's economy?
- October 11, 2006 (PDF, 282 KB) - The evolution of house prices in
Canada reflects the improvement in market fundamentals
- June 22, 2006 (PDF, 270 KB) - Although there is no
real estate bubble in Canada, regional disparities are generating some concerns
- June 22, 2006 (PDF, 75.3 KB) - Comments on the 2006 Federal
Budget
A budget patterned on the Conservative campaign promises
- May 2, 2006 (PDF, 69.1 KB) - What's the frenzy surrounding gold prices?
- April 24, 2006 (PDF, 161 KB) - Comments on the Québec Budget 2006
Everything on health, education and the establishment of a debt repayment fund
- March 23, 2006 (PDF, 228 KB) - Comments on the 2006
Ontario Budget
Investing in infrastructure before eliminating the deficit
- March 23, 2006 (PDF, 129 KB) - The U.S. is not yet grappling with a general real estate bubble
Less pronounced increases in housing prices will slow the pace of economic growth in 2007
- March 14, 2006 (PDF, 350 KB) - Loonie on par with the greenback? Maybe–but not tomorrow!
A look at the determinants of the Canadian exchange rate: a technical and econometric study
- January 25, 2006 (PDF, 451 KB)
- Federal's economic and fiscal update
- November 14, 2005 (PDF, 67.5 KB) - The Bank of Canada will order further key rate hikes
- October 20, 2005 (PDF, 275 KB) - "Will we see a return to higher interest rates?
The process of "normalizing" American and Canadian interest rates: an economic, financial and econometric analysis"
- August 8, 2005 (PDF, 173 KB) - Revaluing the renminbi will not be catastrophic for China
- August 2, 2005 (PDF, 329 KB) - Is
it time for a revaluation of China's currency?
Persistent rumours attest to an imminent revaluation of the renminbi
- May 19, 2005 (PDF, 314 KB) - Analysis of Ontario's 2005 budget
A budget of continuity for the liberals
- May 11, 2005 (PDF, 166 KB) - What is the best choice for a
mortgage term?
An historical overview with simulation...
- April 27, 2005 (PDF, 286 KB) - Comments on the Québec Budget 2005 - A lacklustre budget that meets expectations and is open to compromises
- April 21, 2005 (PDF, 134 KB) - The upcoming Goodale budget
will have something for everyone... but some will have to wait
- February 18, 2005 (PDF, 261 KB) - The phenomenal growth of the Chinese economy:
booming or overheating?
- February 10, 2005 (PDF, 387 KB)
- The Fed hikes federal funds rates
once again
Pauses are still highly likely in 2005
- December 14, 2004 (PDF, 309 KB) - The status quo for Canadian
monetary policy
The Bank of Canada nuances its language at last
- December 7, 2004 (PDF, 295 KB) - Canada: Monetary conditions looser than they initially appear
A modified index allows for more accurate historical comparisons
- December 2, 2004 (PDF, 39.1 KB) - No surprise: The Fed
continues to tighten its monetary policy
The break might come only in 2005
- November 10, 2004 (PDF, 314 KB) - The US economy
during election period
The economic and financial impacts of the November 2 vote
- October 22, 2004 (PDF, 178 KB) - The Bank of Canada to tighten monetary policy... over
time
- October 21, 2004 (PDF, 265 KB) - The Bank of Canada raises rates but softens its stance
- October 19, 2004 (PDF, 297 KB) - The Fed Continues to
Tighten Its Monetary Policy
But a Pause Could Be Announced Later in 2004
- September 21, 2004 (PDF, 295 KB) - The Bank of Canada raises its key rates
- September 8, 2004 (PDF, 293 KB) - Oil: Apprehension sends prices skyrocketing
- August 26, 2004 (PDF, 45.2 KB) - The Fed opts for a second consecutive hike in federal
funds rates
- August 10, 2004 (PDF, 280 KB) - Bank of Canada bimonthly meeting: status quo maintained
- July 20, 2004 (PDF, 295 KB) - US Federal Funds rate increases by 25 basis points
- June 30, 2004 (PDF, 296 KB) - No retirement for
the President of the Federal Reserve
ON JUNE 20, ALAN GREENSPAN ACCEPTED A FIFTH TERM
- June 23, 2004 (PDF, 127 KB) - Will the US dollar continue to plunge? The trend,
causes and outlook...
- June 18, 2004 (PDF, 198 KB) - The Bank of Canada's key rates remain unchanged
- June 8, 2004 (PDF, 293 KB) - ARE WE ON THE EVE OF ANOTHER OIL CRISIS?
The 40% increase in the price of crude oil will have few consequences on the growth of the American and Canadian economies
- May 28, 2004 (PDF, 225 KB) - Advantages of the loonie's appreciation
- May 21, 2004 (PDF, 202 KB) - The US overnight
target rate remains unchanged - But a first increase is possible as early as this summer
- May 4, 2004 (PDF, 273 KB) - The European Union goes from 15
to 25 members - Potential economic and financial impacts
- April 22, 2004 (PDF, 439 KB) - The Bank of Canada's outlook remains almost unchanged
- April 15, 2004 (PDF, 270 KB) - The Bank of Canada
lowers its key interest rates... and ends the period of loosening monetary policy
- April 13, 2004 (PDF, 286 KB) - The March 23 Federal Budget
showcases the new image of the Martin Government
- March 19, 2004 (PDF, 123 KB) - The Federal Reserve is holding its course
- March 16, 2004 (PDF, 296 KB) - The Bank of
Canada lowers its key interest rates once again... a further reduction is expected in April!
- March 2, 2004 (PDF, 284 KB) - The US Federal Reserve remains cautious
- January 28, 2004 (PDF, 314 KB) - China in the 21st Century: The birth of a new trade
empire
- January 23, 2004 (PDF, 252 KB) - The Bank of Canada reduces its policy interest rates once
again
- January 20, 2004 (PDF, 299 KB) - The Bank of Canada will likely lower its key rates
on January 20
- January 13, 2004 (PDF, 272 KB)
- The US Federal Reserve qualifies its message somewhat
- December 9, 2003 (PDF, 288 KB) - The Bank of Canada keeps its key rates unchanged...
- December 2, 2003 (PDF, 280 KB) - Announcement of December 2: Key rates will not be
changed
- November 27, 2003 (PDF, 290 KB) - An immutable long-term link between stock return and
economic growth
- November 21, 2003 (PDF, 453 KB) - The Federal government will maintain a
balanced budget despite the economic shocks
- November 3, 2003 (PDF, 253 KB) - The Federal Reserve reiterates the same message
- October 28, 2003 (PDF, 283 KB) - The Bank of Canada is cautiously optimistic
- October 22, 2003 (PDF, 253 KB) - The Bank of Canada keeps key lending rates unchanged
- October 15, 2003 (PDF, 284 KB) - Post mortem of the 2000-2002 stock market debacle
- October 2, 2003 (PDF, 256 KB) - The Federal Reserve holds firm
- September 16, 2003 (PDF, 274 KB) - The Bank of Canada lowers its rate and adopts a neutral
stance
- September 3, 2003 (PDF, 270 KB) - U.S. key interest rates hold steady
- August 12, 2003 (PDF, 128 KB) - The Bank of Canada lowers its key interest rates
- July 15, 2003 (PDF, 124 KB) - The Federal Reserve is still concerned with falling
inflation
- June 25, 2003 (PDF, 117 KB) - Québec Budget 2003
- June 12, 2003 (PDF, 70 KB) - The Bank of Canada leaves its key lending rates unchanged
- June 3, 2003 (PDF, 99 KB) - The Federal Reserve keeps
its key lending rates unchanged, but makes its stance accommodating
- May 6, 2003 (PDF, 123 KB) - Monetary Policy Report: The Bank
of Canada announces further hikes in key interest rates
- April 23, 2003 (PDF, 66 KB) - The Bank of Canada raises its key lending rates again
- April 15, 2003 (PDF, 93 KB) - US: Key lending rates unchanged and no decision as to
stance
- March 18, 2003 (PDF, 115 KB) - Québec Budget 2003
- March 11, 2003 (PDF, 87 KB) - The Bank of Canada rules in favour of
an increase of 0.25% in the key lending rates
- March 4, 2003 (PDF, 102 KB) - Comments on the 2003 Federal Budget
- February 18, 2003 (PDF, 210 KB) - Federal Budget: Will the Martin tradition continue?
- February 17, 2003 (PDF, 122 KB) - Important risks
linked to uncertainty / Economic and financial forecasts for 2003 might not be fulfilled
- February 12, 2003 (PDF, 95 KB) - Neutral stance in the Federal Reserve's key lending rates
- January 29, 2003 (PDF, 28 KB) - The Bank of Canada chooses status quo due to
uncertainties
- January 21, 2003 (PDF, 110 KB) - Must we dread deflation's
dangers? This rare economic occurence must be feared like the scourge
- January 13, 2003 (PDF, 190 KB)