Canada: Largest Population Decline on Record in Q3 2025

Canada’s population fell in the third quarter of 2025, continuing the slowdown that began toward the end of 2024. This decline was driven by a sharp drop in non‑permanent residents (NPRs), which fell by 176k relative to Q2—the largest quarterly decrease since at least 1971. A substantial reduction in study permit holders (-143k) was the major contributor to the overall decline in NPRs. As a result, the share of NPRs in Canada’s population fell to 6.8% in Q3 from 7.3% in the prior quarter, further closing the gap with the federal governments target of 5% by the end of 2027. The recent slowdown in NPR numbers suggests that the federal government’s new targets for temporary residents are increasingly taking effect. At the same time, immigration levels remained stable, with Canada admitting 103k immigrants in Q3 2025—a level similar to prior quarters.

The pullback in NPRs has been broad-based, with every province and territory seeing fewer NPRs than in the prior quarter, except Nunavut. Only Alberta still registered a slight year‑over‑year boost to population from NPRs (graph 1). In contrast, immigration levels remain stable. Meanwhile, Ontario—Canada’s most populous province—saw its smallest net interprovincial outflow to other provinces and territories in Q3 2025 since 2020. 

Looking ahead, if recent trends persist, the drop in NPRs will likely help continue to lift Canada’s per‑capita real GDP (graph 2). However, weaker population growth is also poised to act as a drag on the broader economy. This will add to existing headwinds—from trade policy uncertainty to the mortgage renewal cycle—which are expected to weigh on near‑term growth and the minds of central bankers. That said, as outlined in our research External link., the moderation in NPR levels is softening rental demand and easing inflationary pressures, though the impact varies across regions.