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Economic News

Quebec: Real GDP Stability at the Start of the Year

April 28, 2026
Sonny Scarfone
Principal Economist

Highlights

  • Quebec’s real GDP was unchanged in January (0.0%), compared with growth of 0.1% for Canada External link. over the same month.
  • The picture varied across industries at the start of the year. Negative contributions from agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, as well as from wholesale trade and the public sector, were largely offset by positive contributions from construction and manufacturing.
  • Compared with the same period last year, Quebec’s real GDP is down 0.7%. January 2025 remains, to date, the month with the highest level of economic activity, as several exporters advanced shipments ahead of the anticipated introduction of tariffs. This pattern is reflected in subsequent sectoral trends: goods-producing industries are down 3.7% year over year, while services have posted modest growth of 0.3%, with retail trade as well as finance and insurance recording the strongest increases.

Comments

Data released today suggest that Quebec’s economy showed resilience early in the year, in the weeks preceding the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. After GDP troughs observed last spring, followed by a slowdown in the fall, signals from the labour market have remained uneven since the start of the year, pointing to some volatility in economic activity. Full-time employment External link. has posted particularly weak results, although more detailed data indicate that this partly reflects population aging, as households are increasingly inclined to take on part-time work.

As a result, hours worked are declining and, in the absence of productivity gains, real GDP growth is likely to remain limited in a context of demographic stagnation.

Implications

As was the case at this time last year, January data are already partly outdated by events that have unfolded since, giving the impression of a calm before the storm. In a context marked by Quebec’s demographic challenges, the current oil shock, while having a slightly positive economic impact at the national level, nonetheless represents a headwind for the province, as it is felt primarily through a loss of purchasing power. Other downside risks are also present, including the review of CUSMA and recent changes to steel and aluminum tariffs. Taken together, these factors have led to a slight downward revision to Quebec’s expected growth in 2026, to 0.8%, in our latest Economic and Financial Outlook External link..

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