- Sonny Scarfone
Principal Economist
Economic News
Quebec: The Labour Market Enters 2026 in Line with Recent Trends
February 6, 2026
Highlights
- In January, Quebec recorded a net gain of 3,700 jobs, a more moderate pace than in December 2025 (Table 1).
- The unemployment rate edged down from 5.3% to 5.2%, remaining the lowest among the ten provinces (Graph 1). This decline reflects a flat labour force, alongside a third consecutive monthly contraction in the population aged 15 and over.
- Looking at the underlying details, the picture was mixed. Full‑time employment, which declined by 38,600 positions in 2025, continued to trend lower in January, with a further loss of 13,100 jobs. By contrast, private‑sector employment, after stagnating in 2025 (-4,600), posted a solid gain of 18,800 jobs in January. Public‑sector employment declined for the first time since March.
- Most sectors were little changed at the start of the year. Among those posting notable moves, professional services as well as information and cultural industries recorded gains. By contrast, educational services, following a very strong 2025, posted the most significant decline in January.
- The non‑seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained below 5% in most regions (Graph 2). On a year‑over‑year basis, it declined sharply in Bas‑Saint‑Laurent (from 6.5% to 4.5%), Mauricie (from 5.7% to 3.7%), Capitale‑Nationale (from 5.3% to 3.6%) and Centre‑du‑Québec (from 5.8% to 4.1%). In Montréal and Laval, unemployment rates are at lows last observed in 2024.
Comments
Over the past year, employment growth has been increasingly concentrated in part‑time positions, a development that has coincided with rising economic uncertainty, though it is not the primary driver. Structural factors remain central, as the population aged 15 to 64, the core source of labour supply, has now stalled on a year‑over‑year basis.
In this context, the broader R7 measure of unemployment, which includes part‑time workers seeking full‑time employment, remains below its level a year ago. This suggests that the observed increase in part‑time work reflects choice rather than labour market slack. That said, the composition of job growth has weighed on total hours worked, which are down roughly 2.2% on a year‑over‑year basis.
Implications
The evolution of Quebec’s labour market will increasingly be shaped by the province’s demographic constraints. As noted in a recent analysis External link., the economy could move toward an unemployment rate near 4% over the coming years, in the absence of a recession. While such conditions have historically been associated with a favourable economic backdrop, they do not, in themselves, guarantee sustained prosperity and are most often observed in economies with aging populations (Graph 3). This environment poses important challenges for growth potential, fiscal sustainability, and the capacity to maintain public services over the longer term.
