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Economic News

Quebec: The New Demographic Reality Reflected in the Labour Market

December 5, 2025
Sonny Scarfone
Principal Economist

Highlights

  • In November, Quebec lost a net 1,900 jobs, following a gain of 11,500 the previous month. Since January, net job creation stands at 29,500 positions (graph 1).
  • The unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.1%, remaining the lowest among the ten provinces. This decline is explained by a drop in the labour force (-11,200). The unemployment rate is now at its lowest level since May 2024.
  • The details were less favorable. Full-time employment posted a sharp decline of 37,600 positions in November and is down 53,300 since the start of the year. Private-sector employment also decreased, pushing its annual balance into negative territory (table 1).
  • The strongest gains came from accommodation and food services, finance, and mining. Conversely, wholesale and retail trade as well as business services recorded the largest losses.
  • The unemployment rate fell in most regions and exceeds 4.5% only in four regions representing 35% of Quebec’s population: Gaspésie–Îles‑de‑la‑Madeleine (7.4%), Outaouais (7.1%), Montréal (6.9%), and Laval (6.1%). More than half of the regions report a rate below 4%, with the lowest in Chaudière‑Appalaches (2.6%).

Comments

The narrative of labour market resilience in times of uncertainty marked its first anniversary in November, twelve months after the first signs of rising US protectionism following the November 2024 presidential elections.

 

Some weaknesses persist, notably full-time employment, which has seen a sharp decline this year. The drop in November was the largest since April 2020. Although these figures can be volatile, the share of full-time jobs in the economy has fallen to its lowest level in more than six years. However, Statistics Canada’s alternative R7 unemployment measure, which includes part-time workers who would prefer full-time jobs, declined again this month. This suggests the trend is driven more by personal choice than by market constraints.

 

This is reflected in total hours worked, down 2.2% year-over-year. Meanwhile, wage pressures have accelerated, with annual growth reaching 4.7%—the fastest pace in 2025 and well above the latest inflation estimate (3.2%).

Implications

Demographic changes are influencing labour market performance. The population aged 15 and over declined for the first time since 2015, a clear sign of a shrinking labour pool. In an ageing population, with a combined contribution from temporary and permanent immigration expected to stagnate in the short term, it is plausible that a number of older workers will shift toward part-time employment.

 

As of today, two-thirds of Quebec’s population live in an administrative region without cyclical unemployment, that is, unemployment linked to overall economic conditions (graph 2). In the current paradigm, a declining unemployment rate will not necessarily be a sign of economic strength.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.