- Sonny Scarfone
Principal Economist
Economic News
Quebec: The Largest Non-Pandemic Employment Decline in at Least 50 Years
March 13, 2026
Highlights
- In February, Quebec experienced a net loss of 57,300 jobs, essentially wiping out the cumulative gains of the previous fourteen months (table). This represents the sharpest monthly decline since January 2021, during the lockdown period, and otherwise the largest drop recorded since Statistics Canada began the series in 1976.
- Despite a decline in the participation rate, which normally puts downward pressure on the unemployment rate, the latter still rose from 5.2% to 5.9% in February (graph 1). It nevertheless remains below the Canadian average of 6.7%, placing Quebec third among provinces with the lowest unemployment rates, behind Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
- A breakdown of the components confirms the magnitude of the decline: both full-time and part-time employment decreased, and all of these losses came from the private sector.
- The declines were also broadly spread across industries, with no single sector accounting for the overall weakness. This broad-based pattern is concerning, as it suggests that the weaknesses that emerged in certain sectors in 2025 are now extending to the rest of the economy. Only four sectors posted gains, totaling 7,300 jobs: manufacturing, transportation, professional services and public administration.
- On a monthly basis, non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates increased across Quebec, except in the Capitale‑Nationale, Outaouais, Abitibi‑Témiscamingue and Gaspésie–Îles‑de‑la‑Madeleine regions, where they remained stable. The change from January to February is usually quite limited. Overall, the weakness observed in February is evident both across sectors and across regions.
Comments
There is no doubt about it: this report shows a significant downside surprise across all its components. The private sector, often viewed as a barometer of confidence in the economic outlook, posted a loss of 53,100 jobs, surpassing its largest pre-pandemic decline of 33,400 jobs in February 2005.
One element does, however, call for caution before concluding that this is more than a statistical aberration, which is always possible in any methodology that relies on a random sample of respondents (the familiar “19 times out of 20”). Another month had already exceeded the non-pandemic peak decline: as recently as September 2025, a loss of 42,200 private-sector jobs was observed, before all of them were recovered over the following four months (graph 2).
Another element suggesting caution: hours worked were estimated to be down 0.3% compared with twelve months earlier, a rather modest decline given the sharper drop recorded the previous month (-2.2%).
Implications
The evolution of Quebec’s labour market, which had until now been described as surprisingly resilient compared with the strength suggested by GDP, has stopped defying gravity this month. It is still advisable to exercise caution and wait for next month’s data before reaching a verdict on the state of Quebec’s economy. Other indicators related to the services sector, for example retail trade, will also help confirm or contradict the signal coming from the employment report. In short: one month does not make a trend, but it certainly knows how to grab attention.