Quebec’s Government Has a Sound Economic Vision but Needs to Articulate a Theory of Change

This week, the Quebec government presented Le pouvoir québécois [in French only] External link., a new economic plan that provides a broadly accurate assessment of the province’s economic situation. In doing so, it looks beyond the current political cycle and identifies several structural challenges: persistent dependence on the US market, regulatory red tape that slows projects and the need for massive infrastructure investment. It also highlights the potential of strategic sectors like energy, critical minerals and defence.

Although the overall vision is highly ambitious, it is also coherent. Quebec does have significant advantages. Hydro‑Québec, which plans to invest $200 billion by 2035, is an energy powerhouse that can drive the economy. The province also has abundant mineral resources, proven expertise in cutting-edge industries and a well-established international presence. These assets can offer real support for an innovation-driven supply-side strategy of economic development.

But the question remains: How do we transform that ambition into action? The document talks about cutting red tape, creating a fast track for major projects and streamlining approval processes. These are legitimate goals, though hardly original, and they face well-known structural constraints: lengthy planning and consultation timelines, regulatory complexity, a shortage of skilled labour (especially in construction), and the need to maintain continuity in major public projects despite political cycles.

The document suggests that a strong political will might be enough to overcome these obstacles. That’s likely an oversimplification. Public-sector decision-making involves many mechanisms, and for good reasons: to promote transparency, ensure fairness and maintain public trust. Reforming these mechanisms while ensuring they remain rigorous calls for a gradual approach and ongoing dialogue between all parties involved.

What’s missing is a theory of change: an approach that manages the tensions inherent in any large-scale economic transformation. These tensions include balancing economic development with environmental stewardship, speed with process quality and ambition with institutional capacity. Without clear mechanisms to navigate these trade-offs, every decision could turn into a political battle, and every major project could be held up by an endless series of challenges and reviews.

The document nevertheless offers two sound ideas to explore further. First, asking public financial institutions like Investissement Québec and provincial pension fund manager La Caisse to increase their investments in the province could accelerate key projects while leveraging existing tools. Second, using government procurement strategically could spur innovation and strengthen local supply chains. Both of these possibilities can have significant ripple effects, but once again, tough questions need to be answered. For instance, acting through La Caisse raises valid concerns about whether the institution’s management is independent, and whether it might face pressure to prioritize the province’s economic goals over its fiduciary duty to generate returns. This tension precisely demonstrates the complexity of the trade-offs involved in any development strategy.

In short, turning an ambitious economic vision into reality in an open and democratic system is a complex endeavour. Quebec is trying to balance the need to act quickly while following legitimate but often restrictive processes. An additional challenge is that the economic gains accruing from most of the projects discussed in the document (energy infrastructure, critical minerals, etc.) will only be realized over a span of decades, while their costs are immediate and visible. Budget deficits are an issue now. Households are seeing their purchasing power dwindle now. Voters naturally want to see concrete benefits accruing to them now. The temporal asymmetry between short-term sacrifices and promised long-term benefits is perhaps the greatest obstacle to any ambitious development strategy in a democracy today.

In this sense, the new plan may open up a crucial discussion for all Canadian governments: How can we improve our collective ability to take action without abandoning the principles underlying our economic model? In the past, Quebec’s major transformative projects (such as the nationalization of the power grid in the 1960s or the construction of the James Bay dams) were based on a broad social consensus and the long-term commitment of public and private institutions. If the document can restart this conversation and set the stage for a similarly broad consensus, it will have served a useful purpose. Because beyond good intentions, the real challenge is to turn today’s spirit of ambition into a lasting movement. Without consensus, that will be hard to achieve.

This week’s Musings is particularly resonant in light of the passing of Alban D’Amours, PhD, economist, former President of Desjardins Group and a prominent figure in the economic landscape of Quebec and Canada. He exemplified the ability to work cooperatively while delivering long-term results. On behalf of Desjardins Economic Studies, we extend our sincere condolences to his loved ones and hope his example will continue to inspire those working to build the economy of tomorrow.