Manitoba: Budget 2024 - New Spending Pressures Drive Deeper Deficits

Manitoba’s 2024 Budget—the first under the current New Democratic Party (NDP) administration—forecasts larger-than-previously anticipated deficits for the next three fiscal years. In line with last year’s NDP election platform, a return to balance is expected in fiscal year 2027–28 (FY2028).

Consistent with larger forecast capital expenditures and deficits, gross provincial borrowing requirement projections were revised higher, to $6.2B in FY2025, $5.8B in FY2026, and $4.7B in FY2027. These figures represent respective increases of $0.9B, $0.1B and $0.3B versus Budget 2023 plans.

New policy was largely incremental and focused on healthcare and affordability. Measures including a new Homeowner's Affordability Tax Credit, Renters Tax Credit, and an extension of the gas tax cut.

Budget 2024 clearly shows a deterioration in Manitoba’s fiscal position relative to prior projections (as we’ve seen in most provinces so far this spring) and attaining fiscal targets will require outer-year spending restraint.

However, Manitoba’s broad industrial base remains an advantage. This should serve the province well as the economy slows in the quarters ahead, as well as over the coming years as it seeks to return to the black.