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Economic Viewpoint

Federal Spring Economic Statement 2026 Preview

A Revised GDP Lifts the Federal Fiscal Boat

April 15, 2026
Randall Bartlett, Deputy Chief Economist • LJ Valencia, Economist

Highlights

  • With the 2026 provincial budget season largely in the rearview mirror, the only major government left to update its fiscal outlook is the Government of Canada.
  • Many of the changes since the introduction of Budget 2025 have been in the federal government’s favour, particularly in relation to the economy. That has freed up fiscal room to increase defence spending and transfers to households while still posting an improved deficit and debt outlook relative to the budget.
  • Canada remains one of the “cleanest fiscal dirty shirts” among advanced economies, and investor demand for government debt reinforces that positive sentiment. We don’t expect a credit downgrade is in the Government of Canada’s future, at least not in the near term.
  • But this shouldn’t be taken for granted. Despite the economic tailwind, risks loom on the horizon. These include the Canada‑United States‑Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) joint review and rising interest rates. The Government of Canada would be wise to keep some fiscal powder dry in case it needs to confront these risks.

PDF Publication

See the full publication in PDF.

Federal Spring Economic Statement 2026 Preview (PDF, 430 KB)
NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.