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Economic News

Canada: High Oil Prices Pushed the Trade Surplus Wider in April

June 9, 2026
LJ Valencia
Economist

Highlights

  • Canada’s international merchandise trade surplus increased to $2.7B in April 2026 from $1.8B in April (graph 1). This was broadly in line with the consensus expectation for a $2.6B surplus. See table for more details.
  • Goods exports rose 1.6% m/m, of which volumes increased 0.2%. Imports were up 0.3%, with volumes falling by 0.1%.
  • Canada’s trade surplus with the US moved up from $7.8B to $9.5B in April, reaching the highest level since February 2025 (graph 2). Meanwhile, the trade deficit with countries other than the United States expanded from $6.0B to $6.8B.
  • The services trade surplus of $0.5B in March narrowed to $0.1B in April. Exports of services decreased by 0.9% m/m while services imports were up 1.1% in the month.

Comments

Following the surprise numbers in March, April’s trade surplus was broadly in line with the expectations of private sector forecasters. The trade balance remained in the black for a second consecutive month, with the surplus widening to its largest level since January 2025.

Nine of the 11 export categories posted gains in April. Energy exports led the way (9.7%) higher, supported by rising global oil prices due to the Iran conflict External link.. Exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products grew (8.9%), reaching their highest level since January 2025. This came mostly on the back of higher shipments of wheat to China and crude canola oil to the US. That said, all of those export gains were largely offset by falling shipments of precious metals (-17.5%), mainly attributed to lower gold shipments to the UK.

On the other side of the trade balance, increases were observed in 6 of the 11 import categories. Imports of basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products increased (16.9%). In contrast, imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped sharply (-12.9%), coinciding with falling gold prices and lower gold purchases from non-residents.

Canada’s trade picture has also become more nuanced. While the surplus with the United States has widened, overall trade activity with the US remains below the pre-April 2025 levels. At the same time, Canada’s trade has become increasingly diversified (graph 3).

Implications

Given the trade data, net exports are expected to boost Q2 output growth. We anticipate real GDP growth of around 1.5% annualized in Q2 2026. This is in line with the Bank of Canada’s outlook published in the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report.

Our outlook External link. continues to assume oil prices will remain elevated as the conflict in the Middle East persists. This should support overall business investment and net exports, particularly in the energy sector, though higher prices will keep weighing on consumers and fuel-dependent industries. Moreover, uncertainty around the joint CUSMA review remains a key headwind to growth and inflation. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Canada held rates steady in its latest announcement External link. and we expect it to remain on hold until 2027.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.