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Economic Viewpoint

Desjardins Housing Outlook:

Entering a Fragile Recovery Phase

February 10, 2026
Kari Norman, Senior Economist • Maëlle Boulais-Préseault, Senior Economist
  • Canada’s housing market enters 2026 with mortgage rates now likely near their cyclical floor but affordability constraints still firmly in place. 
  • In the existing home market, sales are expected to recover gradually in 2026. Provinces that entered 2025 with lower home prices relative to incomes generally saw stronger price growth, underscoring the role of affordability in shaping demand dynamics. Modest national‑level price growth is expected in 2026.
  • Despite insufficient population growth to drive much in the way of demand for new housing, we anticipate that government policies and funding will continue to prop up the homebuilding sector—particularly for below‑market and purpose‑built rental construction—but that homebuilding will remain well below federal government and CMHC targets.
  • Risks are skewed toward continued stagnation—subdued sales and price growth—rather than renewed overheating, paired with mediocre residential construction.
NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.