Canada: Housing Demand Increased Modestly While New Supply Lagged in June

Canadian homebuilding activity edged down in June, to 239k. As is typically the case, most of the month-to-month variability was concentrated within the multi-unit segment. At the half-way point of the year, 2026 is shaping up to potentially have record-low single-detached housing starts, coming in below 38k units in June (graph 1). At the same time, the shift from condo construction to purpose-built rental continues (graph 2). 

In the resale market, seasonally adjusted home sales rose a modest 0.5% m/m in June, on the back of a strong 5.5% in May. For the first time this year, non-seasonally adjusted sales surpassed the same month in 2025 and came in within pre-pandemic seasonal norms (+0.9% y/y).

Nationwide, new listings fell 1.3% m/m in June, and inventory held at 4.8 months. The sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 50.2%, keeping the national market firmly within balanced territory. Average and benchmark home prices were unchanged in the month.

Toronto and Vancouver appear to have turned a corner—both are moving towards balanced markets, with seasonally adjusted sales above the national average (1.4% m/m and 4.1%, respectively) and new listings trailing demand (-3.8% and 0.0%, respectively). Selling prices in both cities remain contained, with average prices essentially flat in Toronto (0.1%) and Vancouver (0.8%). Home sales in Montreal fell -3.9% m/m while average selling prices rose 1.6% in June. With new listings rising 2.9%, this summer’s buyers may have a little less competition and more choice. Meanwhile, the Province of Quebec and other major markets remained broadly balanced in terms of their sales-to-new-listings ratio (graph 3)

Recent resale market data suggest that homebuying activity is advancing following a weak start to the year. Stable borrowing costs are supporting demand, while improving affordability in Canada’s most expensive markets has helped draw some buyers off the sidelines. However, ongoing economic uncertainty and a shrinking population are likely to limit the pace of recovery in housing activity over the near term.

On the supply side, policy changes should help support residential construction activity. Measures including reducing development charges External link. in some municipalities, removing or reducing GST/HST on new homes External link. for qualified buyers and CMHC financing programs for purpose-built rental construction are expected to keep homebuilding levels stronger than would otherwise be expected based on current economic conditions and modest population External link. declines.