Canada: November Jobs Gains Were an Early Holiday Present

Canadian employment moved higher again in November. This follows strong advances in September and October, for a total gain of over 180k jobs in three months. The gain was driven by youth ages 15–24, who accounted for 50k of November's 54k net new jobs and follows an increase of 21k for youth in October. Our recent work External link. found a clear relationship between the rise in the population of young workers and youth unemployment over the past few years. Since mid-summer, the population growth for this cohort has been flat or negative (graph 1), while the youth unemployment rate has pulled back from a high of 14.6% in July to 12.8% in November. If this trend continues—which would be unsurprising given the federal government’s more stringent plans for international student admissions External link.—youth may find next summer’s job market to be more welcoming than last summer’s External link.. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for core-aged workers (ages 25 to 54 years) fell for the third straight month, down 0.2 percentage points to 5.6% in November.

Job growth in November was entirely driven by part-time positions (+63k), mostly in the private sector, while full-time employment pulled back (-9.4k). Employment in the public sector reached a new all-time high in November, growing by 16.3k jobs. Healthcare recorded the largest increase last month (+46k) and over the year to date (+64k). Tariff-sensitive sectors External link. remain under pressure as tariff uncertainty persists, with hiring declining this year. Indeed, our recent work External link. found that drag on employment attributable to the trade war this year is substantial.

Regional disparities remain pronounced. The unemployment rate in Quebec remained the lowest in the country in November, at 5.1%, despite losing 1.9k jobs (graph 2). As compared to a year ago, the unemployment rate has risen in British Columbia, Nova Scotia and Manitoba, in contrast to the declining national average rate.

November’s average wage growth was 3.6% year-over-year, above the recent low reached in June but well down from the elevated levels of over 5% that characterized the post-pandemic period. Wage gains have outpaced inflation, supporting ongoing real earnings growth and increasing household purchasing power heading into the holiday shopping season (graph 3).

We expect the Bank of Canada to keep policy rates on hold for the foreseeable future. Governing Council has indicated that they see the current policy rate as appropriate to keep inflation close to 2% while supporting the economy through the ongoing trade disruption. Today’s strong employment data support that stance.