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Economic News

US: Stronger Employment Growth in October

November 6, 2026
Nom du rédacteur
Francis Généreux
Lead Economist

Highlights

  • The establishment survey showed a net gain of 165,000 jobs in October, following an increase of 60,000 in September (revised from 29,000) and 186,000 in August (revised from 133,000).
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in October. Year-over-year growth slowed from 3.2% to 3.1%.
  • The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in September to 4.1% in October.

Comments

For several months now, it has been difficult to get a clear picture of the US labour market. First, monthly job gains have been uneven. Job creation was relatively weak in the spring and early summer, followed by comparatively strong gains in August and now October, with a weaker September reading in between. Second, revisions to the monthly data continue to reshape the picture. This time, revisions to the previous two months—September (+31,000) and August (+53,000)—were positive. Last month, however, revisions were sharply negative, totalling -60,000. What, then, should we make of the labour market? The trend points to relatively slow employment growth compared with 2023 and 2024, but still a much stronger pace than from summer 2025 through winter 2026.

The October 2026 results were clearly positive, with the gain of 165,000 jobs more than double the consensus forecast. Other labour market indicators also point to improvement. In particular, weekly unemployment insurance claims have recently been trending at very low levels—a positive sign.

October’s improvement in hiring was also fairly broad-based. Of the 250 industries surveyed, 57.6% reported an increase in employment, a marked improvement from 54.2% in September. The private sector added 159,000 jobs, its largest gain since March. This time, growth was driven primarily by private services, while hiring in the goods-producing sector slowed, including a loss of 3,000 jobs in construction, a sector that could face further challenges External link.. Within private services, hiring picked up notably in professional and business services, health care, and couriers and messengers. Employment declined, however, in food services and accommodation.

The household survey once again produced surprisingly strong results. The unemployment rate declined as employment (+463,000) rose more than the labour force (+421,000). That said, this survey is highly volatile.

Implications

While the October data are encouraging, particularly relative to consensus expectations, the underlying labour market trend remains unclear. Nevertheless, conditions are consistent with another policy rate hike in December if inflation warrants it and if the recent volatility in financial markets subsides.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.