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Economic Viewpoint

United States: The 2026 Midterm Elections and the US Economy

A look at the issues and the potential economic consequences of the November 3 elections

October 14, 2026
Nom du rédacteur
Francis Généreux
Lead Economist

On Tuesday, November 3, voters will be heading to the polls for the midterm elections. Every seat in the US House of Representatives and roughly one-third of US Senate seats are up for grabs, as they are every two years. There are also a number of state and local races on the ballot. While President Trump is not running for office, his influence looms large over the election. His personality, leadership style, policies and latest promises will all weigh heavily on voters’ choices. The president’s party typically loses seats in the midterm elections, and that could spell trouble for Republicans. This is borne out in the latest polls, which also show that Americans are particularly worried about the rising cost of living. However, data centres and artificial intelligence are also emerging as hot-button issues. If Democrats win a majority in either chamber of Congress, we’re unlikely to see much federal action on the economy for the next two years.

NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.