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Economic Viewpoint

Quebec’s Economy Soars Several: Factors Explain the Current Resilience

December 9, 2019
François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist
Mathieu D’Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist • Hélène Bégin, Senior Economist

After the 2008–2009 recession, Quebec’s economy grew rather modestly. The rise in real GDP was fluctuating around 1.5% annually and had even dropped below 1% during the 2015 slowdown. Therefore, it seemed impossible to beat the 2% mark given the lower growth in potential GDP than in the past. Household and business confidence reflected an unfavourable climate in many respects. Cautious consumers and businesses, a moribund real estate market, Quebec’s precarious public finances and Montreal’s sluggishness all contributed in one way or another to slowing the economy. Then, all of these factors did an about-face, and the situation quickly improved. Real GDP suddenly shot up three years ago and is now advancing at more than 2.5%. Aside from the global economy accelerating as of mid-2016, with positive repercussions for Quebec, several other factors are behind this renewed strength.