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Economic Viewpoint

Ontario Housing Outlook Condos, Cottages, Copper Country and Canada’s Capital

Subtitle

October 21, 2026
Nom du rédacteur
Kari Norman
Senior Economist

Highlights

  • Ontario’s housing sector remains weak despite improved affordability, greater buyer choice and easing rental conditions. 
  • Condo starts have collapsed in the City of Toronto, though HST relief and steep development charge cuts aim to revive presales and stalled projects. Homeowner construction across the rest of the GTA remains in long‑term decline.
  • Federal public service cuts are weighing on Ottawa’s economic activity, while US tariffs pose risks to Hamilton’s steel‑dependent economy and housing demand.
  • Strong tourism is supporting the Niagara Region, mining investment is tightening some northern markets and pandemic‑era price gains persist in cottage country.
  • Ontario home sales and housing starts should rise in 2027, but elevated borrowing costs and uneven regional conditions will likely limit the recovery.
NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.