- Nom du rédacteur
- Sonny Scarfone
Principal Economist
Economic News
Quebec: Real GDP Advances in Q2, This Time for the Right Reasons
September 23, 2026
Highlights
- Quebec’s real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026 (Canada External link.: 3.3%), following a 1.4% gain in the previous quarter. Results for the beginning of the year were also revised slightly upward.
- Although GDP growth slowed, its composition improved markedly. Final domestic demand rose 2.2%, after a virtually flat first quarter that was revised from an initially reported -1.3% to -0.1%.
- Household spending accelerated by 2.8%, supported by both a rebound in goods consumption and continued strength in services. This result comes as Quebec’s population returned to growth in the second quarter, according to data released this morning by Statistics Canada.
- Exports surged 12.3%, contributing more than five percentage points to real GDP growth on their own. Against a backdrop of trade tensions, Quebec businesses appear to be continuing to benefit from more diversified export markets.
- The reduction in inventories during the second quarter subtracted more than four percentage points from growth, after having provided substantial support to activity earlier in the year. Inventory movements help explain the particularly erratic pattern of economic growth since the onset of the trade conflict with the United States (Graph 1).
- Despite this environment, the Quebec economy has nearly regained the level of output reached before the escalation of the trade conflict. Real GDP by industry has in fact increased by 0.4% in June, its strongest monthly gain since the summer of 2024 (Graph 2).
Comments
The second quarter exceeded expectations in Quebec. Real GDP growth remained positive despite a challenging trade environment and, more importantly, was supported by much stronger underlying fundamentals than at the start of the year. Domestic demand rebounded, while exports surprised to the upside.
A closer look at the GDP components reveals several encouraging signals. Spending on durable goods, traditionally viewed as a barometer of consumer confidence, rose 4.9% at an annualized rate, its strongest gain in a year. Expenditures on semi-durable goods also accelerated. Business investment remained in positive territory for a third consecutive quarter. Strong growth in machinery and equipment spending more than offset ongoing weakness in non-residential structures, consistent with robust activity in information technology and artificial intelligence-related investment.
Trade also delivered a noteworthy performance. International exports rose 12.9%, their strongest increase in three years, while interprovincial exports surged 11.3%, their fastest pace since the post-pandemic recovery. Against a backdrop of continued trade uncertainty, these results suggest that Quebec businesses are continuing to diversify their markets and adapt their supply chains.
Implications
Overall, there is little negative to take away from this release. The spring results point to a Quebec economy that is more resilient and better balanced than previously believed. Real GDP has now returned to within striking distance of its pre-trade-conflict peak, while the strength recorded in June provides a solid starting point for the second half of the year. That said, risks have not disappeared. The latest round of tariffs imposed since August comes at a time when the economy appeared to be regaining its footing, and their impact could prove more pronounced in Quebec External link. than elsewhere in Canada given the significant exposure of several export-oriented industries External link. to the U.S. market. Our economic forecasts External link. will therefore remain relatively cautious until there is more convincing evidence that the current rebound is both durable and broad-based.