- Nom du rédacteur
- Sonny Scarfone
Principal Economist
Economic News
Quebec : Sharp Drop in Employment in September, Though It Should Be Put Into Perspective
October 9, 2026
Highlights
- Employment in Quebec fell by 49,400 positions in September, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. Since the beginning of 2026, the net loss now stands at 126,700 jobs (Table).
- The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 6.0% (Graph 1). It remains below the Canadian average of 6.5%, but has increased by nearly one percentage point since the start of the year.
- The increase in the unemployment rate would have been larger had it not been for a decline in the participation rate, which fell by 0.5 percentage points to 63.7%.
- The weakness in September was driven mainly by full-time employment (-43,300). Losses were also concentrated in the public sector (-40,400) and self-employment (-33,100), while the private sector posted a gain of 24,100 jobs.
- By industry, educational services (-37,500), health care (-8,700), business services (-8,400), and finance, real estate and insurance (-7,200) recorded the largest declines. In contrast, accommodation and food services (+13,200) as well as professional, scientific and technical services (+7,300) posted gains.
- Regionally, losses were concentrated in the Montreal CMA (-35,500), where the unemployment rate rose from 6.5% to 7.4%. In contrast, Chaudière−Appalaches (2.1%), Abitibi−Témiscamingue (2.9%), and Centre−du−Québec (3.3%) recorded the lowest unemployment rates in the province.
Comments
Beyond the headline figures, the weakness in the participation rate deserves attention. At 63.7%, it stands at its lowest level since 2001, excluding the pandemic period. This trend partly reflects ongoing demographic changes. After several years of strong growth, the working-age population is now declining by roughly 1% year over year (Graph 2), reducing the economy's job creation potential and limiting the increase in the unemployment rate.
The other indicators paint a more nuanced picture. The private sector nevertheless added 24,100 jobs in September. Hours worked, however, remain down 2.4% year over year, pointing to weaker economic activity. Meanwhile, average hourly wage growth edged up to 3.5%, from 3.3% in August. Wages therefore continue to rise faster than inflation, suggesting that several segments of the labour market remain relatively tight, particularly outside major urban centres.
Implications
The magnitude of the employment decline in September is concerning, but it was amplified by unusual movements in the educational services sector, warranting caution when interpreting the results.
Although real GDP growth surprised on the upside in the second quarter External link., the headwinds identified in our latest Economic and Financial Outlook External link. remain in place. We therefore continue to expect modest economic growth in Quebec, with real GDP projected to increase by 0.3% in 2026.