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Economic Viewpoint

Ontario Housing Market Outlook: It All Comes Down to Location, Location, Location

March 6, 2023
Randall Bartlett, Senior Director of Canadian Economics • Marc Desormeaux, Principal Economist

While analysts and the media follow Toronto and all‑Ontario real estate data closely, there is significant variability across communities within Canada’s largest province.

Supported by buyers’ desire for more space when working and educating children from home, homebuying activity surged most significantly in smaller Ontario centres during the pandemic.

While we expect home sales and values to find a bottom in the second half of 2023, these smaller cities should continue to experience some of the most pronounced corrections in Ontario.

Despite some variation by city, the erosion of affordability has made life challenging for households across Ontario. As policymakers move forward on ambitious plans to increase the housing supply to improve affordability, considering local market needs will be of paramount importance.