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Economic Viewpoint

A Global Recession on the Horizon? Signs Are Still Scarce

November 22, 2019
François Dupuis • Mathieu D’Anjou • Francis Généreux • Carine Bergevin-Chammah

The global economy has been going through a difficult time since early 2018. Most noticeable is the anemic world trade and the problems in the manufacturing sector. Yet, could these weaknesses be an indication of more serious and more widespread problems? In other words, could we be heading towards a new global recession? According to an analysis grid of economic indicators for most of the G20 countries, few economies are showing signs of a contraction. Still, among advanced countries, Germany and Japan as well as the United Kingdom (in the event of a hard Brexit) need to be watched closely. Among the emerging economies, the overall impression is rather dark in terms of manufacturing, but consumers are showing some resilience. The global situation on the whole is more fragile than it has been in several years, but a worldwide recession does not appear to be taking shape.

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