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Alberta budget

Alberta: Budget 2024 - Investing in the Future

February 29, 2024
Marc Desormeaux, Principal Economist • Kari Norman, Economist

Alberta’s fiscal year 2024–25 (FY2025) budget continued to pencil in surpluses for the foreseeable future, though these were smaller than in the last two updates.

Base case budget balance and debt projections set Alberta up to maintain arguably the strongest financial position of any province.

Fiscal sensitivity to crude values remains historically high and could increase over time, but the province built in significant prudence via bigger contingencies and very conservative oil price forecasts.

Although population growth forecasts were again increased, spending restraint remains in place. Operating expenditures are set to decline in real per capita terms over the forecast horizon.

The province will invest an additional $2B back into the Heritage Fund in FY2025 as part of long-run efforts to build intergenerational wealth. This will be sourced from cash already set aside in the Alberta Fund, with a longer-term plan to be released later this year.

The province now expects to borrow $13.8B in FY2024, $19.8B in FY2025, and $4.4B in FY2026, respective modifications of +$7B, +$14B, and -$11B versus Budget 2023 plans. The profile shift reflects pre-borrowing activity intended to repay debt maturing in 2025.

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NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts, graphs and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. Data on prices and margins is provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. Unless otherwise indicated, the opinions and forecasts contained herein are those of the document’s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group.