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Economic Viewpoint

United States Midterm Elections and U.S. Economy

October 24, 2018
François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist • Mathieu D’Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist • Francis Généreux, Senior Economist

The U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 6. Americans will vote for all members of the House of Representatives and one third of the Senate. There will also be many regional and local elections. Will the results of the Congressional elections be influenced by economic conditions, or will it be the other way around: will the voters’ choices have an impact on the U.S. economy?  To the first point: the economy seems to have less influence on votes for Congress than votes for the President. To the second point: there is a risk that U.S. economic policy will be paralyzed, with little room for compromise between the White House and a possibly divided Congress.