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Economic Viewpoint

Quebec Consequences of Demographic Change for the Real Estate Market

February 28, 2019
François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist
Mathieu D’Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist • Hélène Bégin, Senior Economist

Over a long period, housing prices are largely influenced by demographic factors. Unfavourable trends will intensify in the next few years in several parts of Quebec. A university study carried out in partnership with Desjardins Group’s Economic Studies assessed their impacts. Long-term projections were established to discern how average property prices will evolve in real terms. The specific results for each of the province’s regions are presented over about a 15 year horizon, along with the explanatory factors. Generally speaking, we are initially expecting prices to dip in real terms over several years. The magnitude and length of the decline periods vary among the regions, but the differences are not large. The downside movement will be followed by an upswing that will allow most regions to recoup the lost ground. Nominally—that is, without excluding inflation—in most regions, average prices will continue to rise over the long term, but at a much slower pace than in 2018.