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Economic Viewpoint

Medium-term issues and forecasts. This expansion cycle will not last forever

January 12, 2016
François Dupuis • Hélène Bégin • Mathieu D'Anjou • Benoit P. Durocher • Francis Généreux • Jimmy Jean • Hendrix Vachon

World economic activity should accelerate in the next few years and a number of central banks will fall into step with the Federal Reserve (Fed) in terms of monetary firming. After dropping for several years, bond yields should start to trend up again; this could curb some stock market growth. From now until 2020, the likelihood that the current economic expansion cycle will end will increase. In 2019, it will have been 10 years since the last U.S. recession, making for a fairly long cycle. Incorporating an economic slowdown towards the end of the medium-term projection scenario therefore seems prudent. The slowdown could come from a new slump by U.S. demand, which would have impacts on the rest of the global economy. This scenario means that interest rates would start dropping again around 2019.