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Economic Viewpoint

Few Indicators Point to a U.S. Recession

November 27, 2019
François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist • Mathieu D’Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist • Francis Généreux, Senior Economist

After analyzing recession indicators in the major overseas economies in a recent Economic Viewpoint, we now note that concerns about a potential end of cycle in the United States have also increased, especially since the upheaval in the stock market in fall 2018. These fears seem to have peaked last summer when a number of indicators were pointing downwards, stock markets were worried about the Chinese–U.S. trade war and the slope of the yield curve became strongly inverted. Based on a range of indicators on the U.S. economy (the same ones we used in 2008–2009), some signs point to a pending recession in the United States, but they are still scarce. However, the economy remains fragile and the situation will continue to evolve. We will have to keep monitoring these signs to see if they start multiplying.