The Yield Curve

• The European Central Bank has staunched the hemorrhage, but the patient is still not cured
  The Federal Reserve announcement will limit the rise in bond yields
  - January 31, 2012 (PDF, 310 KB)

Previous issues

2011

• The problems in the euro zone will continue to favour the bond market
  - November 29, 2011 (PDF, 284 KB)
• Too soon to be overly optimistic!
  - October 28, 2011 (PDF, 286 KB)
• Bond yields will remain very low for the coming quarters
  - August 30, 2011 (PDF, 328 KB)
• One final push for the bond market?
  - May 31, 2011 (PDF, 289 KB)
• The situation is getting complicated for central banks
  It will be hard for bond yields to stay this low
  - May 2, 2011 (PDF, 267 KB)
• Stronger economic recovery + increase in inflationary pressures = interest rate hikes a little sooner
  Turmoil in the Arab world creates some volatility
  - February 25, 2011 (PDF, 284 KB)
• In the industrialized nations, an inflation spiral is unlikely
  Monetary policies will have to remain expansionary
  - January 28, 2011 (PDF, 235 KB)

2010

• Too soon for a strong rise in bond yields
  - November 26, 2010 (PDF, 323 KB)
• What will be the consequence of the Federal Reserve's interventionism?
  - November 1, 2010 (PDF, 324 KB)
• Although it seems overvalued, the bond market could continue to perform well in the near term
  The central banks will maintain extremely stimulating monetary policies
  - September 1, 2010 (PDF, 304 KB)
• The markets are positioning for the worst
  Inflation no longer ranks as high among the major central banks' chief concerns
  - May 28, 2010 (PDF, 304 KB)
• Sovereign debts, high deficits, economic recovery, disinflation... volatility
  - May 3, 2010 (PDF, 235 KB)
• The embryonic state of the recovery requires low interest rates
  - March 2, 2010 (PDF, 263 KB)
• Uncertainty is haunting the markets again
  - February 1, 2010 (PDF, 293 KB)

2009

• Hard for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in a jobless recovery
  - December 1, 2009 (PDF, 276 KB)
• The Bank of Canada's hands are tied: no key rate increase until the second half of 2010
  - November 2, 2009 (PDF, 275 KB)
• The stock market is climbing, but demand for Treasuries stays strong. Odd? Not really!
  - August 31, 2009 (PDF, 307 KB)
• Could bond vigilantes derail the economic recovery?
  - May 29, 2009 (PDF, 237 KB)
• Has the Federal Reserve done enough?
  - May 4, 2009 (PDF, 418 KB)
• Will the Federal Reserve have to resolve to target inflation?
  - February 27, 2009 (PDF, 397 KB)
• The surge in the debt concerns markets
  - February 3, 2009 (PDF, 405 KB)

2008

• New measures will be taken as deflation risks intensify
  - November 28, 2008 (PDF, 388 KB)
• If the Federal Reserve reduces the federal funds rate to almost zero, what next?
  - November 4, 2008 (PDF, 413 KB)
• Will the easing of inflationnary pressures start a new cycle of rate decreases?
  - August 28, 2008 (PDF, 432 KB)
• The Federal Reserve and Treasury rescue U.S. mortgage mainstays
  - July 25, 2008 (PDF, 317 KB)
• The U.S. Federal Reserve is torn between inflation risks and the slowing economy
  - May 30, 2008 (PDF, 363 KB)
• Has the U.S. Federal Reserve really finished with monetary easing?
  - May 2, 2008 (PDF, 337 KB)
• Stagflation? Risks to growth predominate over inflationary risks: Interest rate cuts will continue
  - February 28, 2008 (PDF, 341 KB)
• The U.S. Federal Reserve takes the bull by the horns, but more rate cuts will be needed
  - January 31, 2008 (PDF, 345 KB)