Economic Viewpoint

• Exit strategies for central banks
  How can monetary inflation be avoided?
  - November 20, 2009 (PDF, 202 KB)

Previous issues

2009

• The key to Québec's economic prosperity
  Boost productivity to soften the impact of the demographic shock
  - September 22, 2009 (PDF, 260 KB)
• Change in employment at the end of a recession and the beginning of a recovery: what the past can teach us
  - September 3, 2009 (PDF, 172 KB)
• The worst economic crisis since 1929 is rekindling the age-old ideological debate among economists
  - August 26, 2009 (PDF, 180 KB)
• Demographic shock: An update
  It remains a problem for the next fifteen years!
  - July 22, 2009 (PDF, 105 KB)
• Outlook for the stock markets: Can the bull trend continue?
  - June 19, 2009 (PDF, 240 KB)
• Is the return to economic growth imminent?
  - June 9, 2009 (PDF, 283 KB)
• Impact of the demographic shock on Québec's economy
  Slowdown in GDP growth will have far-reaching consequences
  - May 28, 2009 (PDF, 224 KB)
• Will U.S. consumers be part of the economic rebound?
  The jump in savings could offset the government's efforts to kick-start the economy
  - May 29, 2009 (PDF, 263 KB)
• Canada’s national balance sheet: Falling assets leading to increased savings
  - April 29, 2009 (PDF, 176 KB)
• The Bank of Canada is one step away from adopting a quantitative policy
  - April 15, 2009 (PDF, 270 KB)
• Already fragile, the public finances explode under pressure from revenues
  - March 4, 2009 (PDF, 113 KB)
• The financial crisis has led to changes in the Canadian mortgage market
  - March 4, 2009 (PDF, 149 KB)
• Consequences of a high public debt in the United States
  - February 25, 2009 (PDF, 174 KB)
• Deflationary forces intensify
  - February 18, 2009 (PDF, 212 KB)
• Last chance budget!
  To kick start the economy, governments will have to inject at least $20B over two years
  - January 22, 2009 (PDF, 98.5 KB)
• Is the Fed’s rapidly expanding balance sheet an inflation threat?
  - January 15, 2009 (PDF, 183 KB)

2008

• Québec could avoid a steep economic decline
  However, a mild recession seems likely
  - December 10, 2008 (PDF, 157 KB)
• The commodity price correction is justified, but concerns about shortages could resurface
  - November 27, 2008 (PDF, 188 KB)
• Our future prosperity hinges on our universities
  - November 19, 2008 (PDF, 110 KB)
• Desjardins: a clear force for Québec
  - November 12, 2008 (PDF, 114 KB)
• Impacts of Barack Obama being elected President of the United States
  - November 5, 2008 (PDF, 168 KB)
• The November 4th elections and the U.S. economy
  - October 21, 2008 (PDF, 344 KB)
• The impact of the financial crisis in Canada
  - October 14, 2008 (PDF, 141 KB)
• Subprime Mortgage Crisis: the Paulson rescue plan is necessary, but hardly a cure-all
  - October 9, 2008 (PDF, 171 KB)
• Financial crisis: neither the first nor the last
  - October 3, 2008 (PDF, 215 KB)
• Far from widespread, prices for residential housing
  will continue to fall in some regions across the country
  - September 25, 2008 (PDF, 143 KB)
• From gross domestic product (GDP) to gross domestic income (GDI)
  Canada's economy is in better shape than expected: possibility of new rate cuts reduced
  - August 26, 2008 (PDF, 142 KB)
• Québec economy: The adverse effects of demographic shock are looming
  It is important to act now to soften the impact on the labour market
  - August 13, 2008 (PDF, 118 KB)
• Worldwide food crisis: Fears of a famine are overstated
  - June 4, 2008 (PDF, 174 KB)
• The Canadian auto industry's difficulties are far from over
  - June 3, 2008 (PDF, 191 KB)
• Should the surge in oil and food prices prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to target total inflation?
  - May 27, 2008 (PDF, 168 KB)
• Where are we with the U.S. recession?
  - May 14, 2008 (PDF, 156 KB)
• The price of gas: How much will Quebecers have to tighten their belts?
  - May 13, 2008 (PDF, 133 KB)
• Is the European Central Bank's hawkish tone inflationary?
  - May 12, 2008 (PDF, 144 KB)
• Job growth in the context of economic slowdown: Impacts on productivity
  - May 1, 2008 (PDF, 120 KB)
• Are current oil prices justified?
  - April 30, 2008 (PDF, 252 KB)
• The subprime mortgage credit crisis: should the government intervene (again)?
  - April 24, 2008 (PDF, 201 KB)
• Québec’s economy: private investment lies at the heart of the productivity battle
  - April 21, 2008 (PDF, 616 KB)
• The strength of the labour market in Canada could still surprise
  - April 15, 2008 (PDF, 129 KB)
• The Fed’s policy of injecting liquidities – is it really expansionist and inflationist?
  - April 14, 2008 (PDF, 170 KB)
• 100th anniversary of the Canadian penny
  An opportunity to re-examine the usefulness of our coins and bank notes in circulation
  - April 9, 2008 (PDF, 286 KB)
• Credit problems are creating a major risk
  - March 17, 2008 (PDF, 228 KB)
• Stagflation fears are exaggerated
  - March 14, 2008 (PDF, 154 KB)
• United States: Are home prices set to bottom out?
  - March 12, 2008 (PDF, 208 KB)
• Québec Budget 2008: Above all, keep it in balance
  - March 5, 2008 (PDF, 118 KB)
• Québec' Economy: The Challenge of Foreign Markets
  Geographic diversification needed quickly to reduce export dependency on the United states
  - February 29, 2008 (PDF, 605 KB)
• Oil prices over US$100 a barrel!
  - February 21, 2008 (PDF, 114 KB)
• Diminishing inflation in Canada
  - February 21, 2008 (PDF, 193 KB)
• Fiscal imbalance is still with us!
  - February 19, 2008 (PDF, 104 KB)
• Is the United States in a recession? What are the signs?
  - February 14, 2008 (PDF, 229 KB)
• European Central Bank will lower rates when the time comes
  - February 12, 2008 (PDF, 144 KB)
• The probability of a recession is high, especially in the United States
  - January 15, 2008 (PDF, 115 KB)
• Oil at US$100: worrisome but not disastrous
  10 reasons why there is no need to panic
  - January 3, 2008 (PDF, 217 KB)

2007

• Common currency with the United States: It's not worth the risk
  - November 29, 2007 (PDF, 147 KB)
• The loonie continues to soar, reaching US$1.10 overnight
  - November 7, 2007 (PDF, 147 KB)
• Is the stock market coming into the last leg of a long race?
  - September 27, 2007 (PDF, 259 KB)
• Canadian dollar: A weak greenback and high oil prices mean parity is a sure thing
  - September 20, 2007 (PDF, 143 KB)
• Impacts of the U.S. mortgage crisis
  - August 14, 2007 (PDF, 221 KB)
• China's real GDP up by 11.9% in the second quarter
  - July 19, 2007 (PDF, 97.1 KB)
• Will the Canadian dollar keep surprising us?
  - May 31, 2007 (PDF, 189 KB)
• Comments on the 2007-2008 Québec Budget
  First Jérôme-Forget budget: Almost everything on the promised tax cuts
  - May 24, 2007 (PDF, 79.3 KB)
• Special Québec-Ontario Forecasts
  The economic slowdown's trough will soon make way for recovery
  - April 26, 2007 (PDF, 95 KB)
• Analysis of Ontario's 2007 Budget
  A Balanced and Relatively Modest Budget
  - March 22, 2007 (PDF, 137 KB)
• Analysis of the Canada’s Budget 2007
  - March 19, 2007 (PDF, 68.5 KB)
• Analysis on the 2007 Québec Budget
  - February 20, 2007 (PDF, 87.2 KB)
• Should we stop using the penny?
  - February 15, 2007 (PDF, 167 KB)
  • Press release - Should We Say Goodbye to the Penny?
    - February 15, 2007 (PDF, 27 KB)
  • Exploratory Study: Canadians’ Behaviours with Respect to Coin Usage
    - February 15, 2007 (PDF, 67 KB)
• Special Québec - Ontario Forecasts: Economic slowdown will peak in 2007 but dissipate thereafter
  - February 9, 2007 (PDF, 86 KB)
• The pessimism toward the greenback is not justified: the currency will stay strong against the euro and yen
  - January 24, 2007 (PDF, 193 KB)

2006

• Does the sharp inversion of the U.S. yield curve point to a recession... or not?
  - December 11, 2006 (PDF, 231 KB)
• Must the Bank of Canada avoid reducing key rates due to rising prices for real estate?
  - December 7, 2006 (PDF, 105 KB)
• The Federal Economic and Fiscal Update
  - November 23, 2006 (PDF, 54.4 KB)
• Global slowdown ahead: should we expect a drastic correction in raw material prices?
  - November 17, 2006 (PDF, 216 KB)
• "Petrocurrency": good or bad for Canada's economy?
  - October 11, 2006 (PDF, 282 KB)
• The evolution of house prices in Canada reflects the improvement in market fundamentals
  - June 22, 2006 (PDF, 270 KB)
• Although there is no real estate bubble in Canada, regional disparities are generating some concerns
  - June 22, 2006 (PDF, 75.3 KB)
• Comments on the 2006 Federal Budget
  A budget patterned on the Conservative campaign promises
  - May 2, 2006 (PDF, 69.1 KB)
• What's the frenzy surrounding gold prices?
  - April 24, 2006 (PDF, 161 KB)
• Comments on the Québec Budget 2006
  Everything on Health, Education and the Establishment of a Debt Repayment Fund
  - March 23, 2006 (PDF, 228 KB)
• Comments on the 2006 Ontario Budget
  Investing in infrastructure before eliminating the deficit
  - March 23, 2006 (PDF, 129 KB)
• The U.S. is not yet grappling with a general real estate bubble
  Less pronounced increases in housing prices will slow the pace of economic growth in 2007
  - March 14, 2006 (PDF, 350 KB)
• Loonie on par with the greenback? Maybe-but not tomorrow!
  A look at the determinants of the Canadian exchange rate: a technical and econometric study
  - January 25, 2006 (PDF, 451 KB)

2005

• Federal's Economic and Fiscal Update
  - November 14, 2005 (PDF, 67.5 KB)
• The Bank of Canada will order further key rate hikes
  - October 20, 2005 (PDF, 275 KB)
• Will we see a return to higher interest rates?
  The process of "normalizing" American and Canadian interest rates: an economic, financial and econometric analysis
  - August 8, 2005 (PDF, 173 KB)
• Revaluing the renminbi will not be catastrophic for China
  - August 2, 2005 (PDF, 329 KB)
• Is it time for a revaluation of China's currency?
  Persistent rumours attest to an imminent revaluation of the renminbi
  - May 19, 2005 (PDF, 314 KB)
• Analysis of Ontario's 2005 budget
  A budget of continuity for the liberals
  - May 11, 2005 (PDF, 166 KB)
• What is the best choice for a mortgage term?
  An historical overview with simulation...
  - April 27, 2005 (PDF, 286 KB)
• Comments on the Québec Budget 2005 - A lacklustre budget that meets expectations and is open to compromises
  - April 21, 2005 (PDF, 134 KB)
• The upcoming Goodale budget will have something for everyone... but some will have to wait
  - February 18, 2005 (PDF, 261 KB)
• The phenomenal growth of the Chinese economy: booming or overheating?
  - February 10, 2005 (PDF, 387 KB)

2004

• The Fed hikes federal funds rates once again
  Pauses are still highly likely in 2005
  - December 14, 2004 (PDF, 309 KB)
• The status quo for Canadian monetary policy
  The Bank of Canada nuances its language at last
  - December 7, 2004 (PDF, 295 KB)
• Canada: Monetary conditions looser than they initially appear
  A modified index allows for more accurate historical comparisons
  - December 2, 2004 (PDF, 39.1 KB)
• No surprise: The Fed continues to tighten its monetary policy
  The break might come only in 2005
  - November 10, 2004 (PDF, 314 KB)
• The US economy during election period
  The economic and financial impacts of the November 2 vote
  - October 22, 2004 (PDF, 178 KB)
• The Bank of Canada to tighten monetary policy... over time
  - October 21, 2004 (PDF, 265 KB)
• The Bank of Canada raises rates but softens its stance
  - October 19, 2004 (PDF, 297 KB)
• The Fed Continues to Tighten Its Monetary Policy
  But a Pause Could Be Announced Later in 2004
  - September 21, 2004 (PDF, 295 KB)
• The Bank of Canada raises its key rates
  - September 8, 2004 (PDF, 293 KB)
• Oil: Apprehension sends prices skyrocketing
  - August 26, 2004 (PDF, 45.2 KB)
• The Fed opts for a second consecutive hike in federal funds rates
  - August 10, 2004 (PDF, 280 KB)
• Bank of Canada bimonthly meeting: status quo maintained
  - July 20, 2004 (PDF, 295 KB)
• US Federal Funds Rate Increases by 25 Basis Points
  - June 30, 2004 (PDF, 296 KB)
• No retirement for the President of the Federal Reserve
  ON JUNE 20, ALAN GREENSPAN ACCEPTED A FIFTH TERM
  - June 23, 2004 (PDF, 127 KB)
• Will the US dollar continue to plunge? The trend, causes and outlook...
  - June 18, 2004 (PDF, 198 KB)
• The Bank of Canada's Key Rates Remain Unchanged
  - June 8, 2004 (PDF, 293 KB)
• ARE WE ON THE EVE OF ANOTHER OIL CRISIS?
  The 40% increase in the price of crude oil will have few consequences on the growth of the American and Canadian economies
  - May 28, 2004 (PDF, 225 KB)
• Advantages of the loonie's appreciation
  - May 21, 2004 (PDF, 202 KB)
• The US Overnight Target Rate Remains Unchanged - But a first increase is possible as early as this summer
  - May 4, 2004 (PDF, 273 KB)
• The European Union goes from 15 to 25 members - Potential economic and financial impacts
  - April 22, 2004 (PDF, 439 KB)
• The Bank of Canada's Outlook Remains Almost Unchanged
  - April 15, 2004 (PDF, 270 KB)
• The Bank of Canada Lowers Its Key Interest Rates... and Ends the Period of Loosening Monetary Policy
  - April 13, 2004 (PDF, 286 KB)
• The March 23 Federal Budget Showcases the New Image of the Martin Government
  - March 19, 2004 (PDF, 123 KB)
• The Federal Reserve Is Holding Its Course
  - March 16, 2004 (PDF, 296 KB)
• The Bank of Canada Lowers Its Key Interest Rates Once Again... a Further Reduction is Expected in April!
  - March 2, 2004 (PDF, 284 KB)
• The US Federal Reserve Remains Cautious
  - January 28, 2004 (PDF, 314 KB)
• China in the 21st Century: The birth of a new trade empire
  - January 23, 2004 (PDF, 252 KB)
• The Bank of Canada reduces its policy interest rates once again
  - January 20, 2004 (PDF, 299 KB)
• The Bank of Canada Will Likely Lower Its Key Rates on January 20
  - January 13, 2004 (PDF, 272 KB)

2003

• The US Federal Reserve Qualifies Its Message Somewhat
  - December 9, 2003 (PDF, 288 KB)
• The Bank of Canada Keeps Its Key Rates Unchanged...
  - December 2, 2003 (PDF, 280 KB)
• Announcement of December 2: Key rates will not be changed
  - November 27, 2003 (PDF, 290 KB)
• An immutable long-term link between stock return and economic growth
  - November 21, 2003 (PDF, 453 KB)
• The Federal government will maintain a balanced budget despite the economic shocks
  - November 3, 2003 (PDF, 253 KB)
• The Federal Reserve reiterates the same message
  - October 28, 2003 (PDF, 283 KB)
• The Bank of Canada Is Cautiously Optimistic
  - October 22, 2003 (PDF, 253 KB)
• The Bank of Canada keeps key lending rates unchanged
  - October 15, 2003 (PDF, 284 KB)
• Post mortem of the 2000-2002 stock market debacle
  - October 2, 2003 (PDF, 256 KB)
• The Federal Reserve holds firm
  - September 16, 2003 (PDF, 274 KB)
• The Bank of Canada lowers its rate and adopts a neutral stance
  - September 3, 2003 (PDF, 270 KB)
• U.S. Key Interest Rates Hold Steady
  - August 12, 2003 (PDF, 128 KB)
• The Bank of Canada lowers its key interest rates
  - July 15, 2003 (PDF, 124 KB)
• The Federal Reserve is still concerned with falling inflation
  - June 25, 2003 (PDF, 117 KB)
• Québec Budget 2003
  - June 12, 2003 (PDF, 70 KB)
• The Bank of Canada leaves its key lending rates unchanged
  - June 3, 2003 (PDF, 99 KB)
• The Federal Reserve Keeps Its Key Lending Rates Unchanged, But Makes Its Stance Accommodating
  - May 6, 2003 (PDF, 123 KB)
• Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada announces further hikes in key interest rates
  - April 23, 2003 (PDF, 66 KB)
• The Bank of Canada Raises Its Key Lending Rates Again
  - April 15, 2003 (PDF, 93 KB)
• US: Key Lending Rates Unchanged And No Decision As To Stance
  - March 18, 2003 (PDF, 115 KB)
• Québec Budget 2003
  - March 12, 2003 (PDF, 87 KB)
• The Bank of Canada Rules in Favour of an Increase of 0.25% in the Key Lending Rates
  - March 4, 2003 (PDF, 102 KB)
• Comments on the 2003 Federal Budget
  - February 18, 2003 (PDF, 210 KB)
• Federal Budget: Will the Martin Tradition Continue?
  - February 17, 2003 (PDF, 122 KB)
• Important Risks Linked to Uncertainty / Economic and financial forecasts for 2003 might not be fulfilled
  - February 12, 2003 (PDF, 95 KB)
• Neutral Stance in the Federal Reserve's Key Lending Rates
  - January 29, 2003 (PDF, 28 KB)
• The Bank of Canada Chooses Status Quo due to Uncertainties
  - January 21, 2003 (PDF, 110 KB)
• Must we Dread Deflation's Dangers? This rare economic occurence must be feared like the scourge
  - January 13, 2003 (PDF, 190 KB)